POLICY BRIEF 01 2020 Turning the Tide in Libya: Rival Administrations in a New Round of Conflict PRIO Cyprus Centre Visitng address: 52 Arsinois, 1010 Nicosia Mailing address: PO Box 25157, 1307 Nicosia Cyprus Re-Imagining the Eastern Mediterranean Project www.prio.no/cyprus ISBN 978-82-343-0119-3 (online) Aer more than a year of efforts, the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) military campaign to capture Tripoli has collapsed. Turkey’s military intervention in favour of the Government of National Accord (GNA) has been crucial in preventing the fall of Tripoli, turning the tide against the LNA and helping the GNA advance to the east. Turkey’s involvement has also stirred new diplomatic initiatives, enhanced the geopolitical antagonism between Ankara and external supporters of the LNA such as Russia and Egypt, and ushered Libya into a new phase of conflict between the GNA and LNA. Amid possibilities of conflict escalation and challenges to bridging Cairo’s proposed peace initiative and the UN-led peace talks, a win-win formula in Libya will be difficult to negotiate. Brief Points: • Turkey’s intervention in favour of the GNA had a decisive role in the collapse of the LNA’s year-long campaign to capture Tripoli. • Despite the LNA’s failure, involvement by external actors will most likely perpetuate the LNA-GNA conflict. • Turkey’s intervention has shied the conflict’s balances of power and enhanced the antagonisms among external powers over Libya. • Divergences emerged over the peace process framework as Turkey rejected Egypt’s ceasefire proposal and Washington expressed its support to the UN- led peace talks, indirectly rejecting the Cairo framework. Ioannis Sotirios Ioannou and Zenonas Tziarras