© JAN 2020 | IRE Journals | Volume 3 Issue 7 | ISSN: 2456-8880
IRE 1701896 ICONIC RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING JOURNALS 165
Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Residential
Property Investment in Abuja Metropolis, Nigeria
VICTOR N. EKWEBELEM
1
, FIDELIS I. EMOH
2
1, 2
Department of Estate Management, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, P.M.B 5025, Awka, Nigeria.
Abstract- To ensure that the market is properly
positioned, an assessment of the forces that drives the
value chain is paramount. The study is geared
towards examining the effects of macroeconomic
variables on residential property investment
performance in Abuja metropolis, Nigeria by
assessing the risk- return performance of the
investment; examining the trend in macroeconomic
variables; establishing linkages between
macroeconomic factors; and examining the effect of
macroeconomic factors on residential investment
performance. Both primary and secondary sources
of data were utilized. The study analysed 722 rent
and sale transactions sourced primarily from
Registered Estate Firms to determine the sales and
rents returns, and data on macroeconomic factors
were collected secondarily from Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) and National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS) for the study period (2001-2015). Results
showed that base on risk-return performance
analysis of Gwarimpa market; is considered the most
performed market with stable and steady return
having the least unit of risk at 35% and 43% with
comparable average return at 11.05 and 12.5% for
3B/R and 4B/R respectively. The macroeconomic
variables which included: the Annual Growth rate in
Real GDP over the period of study falls within 2.35-
8.38%, with lowest and highest real GDP observed in
2015 and 2010 respectively, the Annual Interest rate
falls within 11.0-25.01%, it was observed that there
was a continuous fall in interest rate from 2003 to
2008. The also result suggested that between 18.2%-
83.6% and 16.2%-79% variations in three bedroom
and four bedroom returns across the nine residential
markets out of the twelve were significant influenced
by macroeconomic indicators while three markets
were not significantly influenced. The study
therefore conclude that macroeconomic policy has
significant effect in Abuja residential market
performance in nine markets though the remaining
three markets were insignificant to influence the
performance.
Indexed Terms- Macroeconomic variables,
residential property, market performance, total
returns
I. INTRODUCTION
It is far evidently obvious that macroeconomic factors
influence property returns and these dynamics of
property return occurs when change, and slow
adjustment of return to changes in macroeconomic
policy creates a lag time, which generally makes
property market to exhibit low price fluctuation.
Besides, house rent sluggishness leads to irrational
exuberance bubble or influences in the property
market during economic booms. Unexpected changes
in macroeconomic factors such as money supply,
gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate, etc.
affects property returns with a lag which consequently
leads to instability in property investment depending
on the speed of transmission mechanism: which relies
on the efficiency and effectiveness of the institutional
framework of Nigeria which includes the speed of
administrative process, credit supply and land
availability for investment and so on.
Conversely, property return also exhibits feedback
reaction to macro economy, the reappraisal effect is
that increasing nominal rent also causes wealth effect
which raise consumption, and decreasing house rent
might shrink consumption. Over the years, some
Scholars have tried to establish the link between
property returns and macro-economic factor with
attendant success. In Europe [12], [5], [8] [18], in
America [1], [11], [7], in Asia [16], [17], [9] and in
Africa as developing continent [25], [10], [7], [13],