1 Pre-proof and pre-design version published as: Lynch, K. (2004) Chapter 8: Managing Urbanisation. In Global Environmental Issues. Frances Harris (Ed.) John Wiley, Chichester. Pp: 198-228. Chapter 8: Managing Urbanisation By Kenneth Lynch ‘More than half of humankind will live in urban areas by the end of the 20 th century, and 60 per cent by 2020… In coming decades, most of the world's poor will be urban, living under conditions that can be worse than those of the rural poor.’ (World Resources Institute 1996; p.ix). ‘It is almost a truism that the planet’s future is an urban one and that the largest and fastest growing cities are primarily in developing countries.’ (Rakodi, 1997; p.1). 1. Introduction 1.1 The Growth of Cities As the world entered the 20th century, an estimated 2 per cent of the population lived in urban areas. As we entered the 21st century it is estimated that slightly more than 50 per cent of the population is urban. As we proceed further into the 21st century, all estimates of population change are that the increasing trend towards a more urbanised world will continue, in particular: • The world is currently experiencing some of the fastest rates of city growth history has seen • During 2000 the global population shifted from less than 50% urban to more than 50% urban. By 2010 it is estimated that the urban population will account for more than 60% of the world’s population. Most of this change will take place in the world’s poorest countries. • There is evidence to suggest that more affluent cities are able to transfer the environmental burden of their lifestyles away from them, while in poorer cities the environmental burden falls mainly on the population. • The urban challenge of the near future will be to find ways of the poorest cities meeting their needs, in particular food, shelter, water, while avoiding the worst of the environmental hazards. The problem of how to manage sustainable urbanisation is therefore an issue of global significance which will become more important as time goes on and the world’s population becomes more urbanised. This chapter therefore explores the key issues and approaches to understanding the modern concept of sustainable cities and what a sustainable city might be. This involves brief discussion of the current situation and the exploration of ideas that are influential in the discussion about how to achieve sustainable settlements, such as of the idea of an urban ‘ecological footprint’, city- region and sustainable human settlements. Early urbanisation came about as a result of concentration of agricultural surpluses that allowed the concentration of people who could focus their labours full-time on other