Migration Fears in the United States and the Geopolitical Risk Index Christopher Olds Department of Political Science, Fort Hays State University chris@chrisolds.com Abstract. This study contrasts a publicly available measure of migration fears in the United States with a publicly available measure of geopolitical risk, a barometer of concern about possible disruptions to peace in international relations. The time series analyses performed on information spanning between 1990 and 2019 suggest that a change in migration fears in the U.S. increases the level of geopolitical risk, such that the U.S. appears to perceive migrants as potentially threatening and responds with an aggressive posture in interactions with other nations. The findings of the study are aligned with theories in existing academic literature about fear-induced aggression and intergroup conflict. Keywords. Migration, Migration Fears Index, Geopolitical Risk Index, International Relations 1. Introduction/Background The intent of this project is to explore the connection between migration fears in the U.S. and a major indicator of tensions in international relations, the geopolitical risk index. Baker et al. (2015) developed measures of the intensity of migration fears in several countries: the United States, France, Germany, and Great Britain. These measures were developed to gauge the shift across time in the language used by news outlets within these respective countries about the issue of migration. If a country increasingly views migrants with fear, the language used in news coverage reflects that. Since the U.S. is a prominent figure in geopolitical affairs, this initial study explores whether migration fears within the U.S. can result in changes to the perceived level of geopolitical risk present in the world. 1.1 Defining Fear Measuring the historical fluctuations about fears of a group can help us to learn more about the potential consequences of a rise in fear. Gross and Canteras (2012) define fear as a word that describes a feeling whereby people believe an impending threat to their survival exists. Fear can be the result of repeated exposure to threat-related stimuli. When individuals are repeatedly exposed to patterns of stimuli that are considered threatening, people will develop adaptive behaviors to avoid or cope with the perceived threat (Adolphs, 2013). One of these responses is aggressive behavior. Protective forms of aggression can be motivated by feelings of fear (Archer, 1988). If people are made to fear something, a potential reaction will be to confront or 504 Technium Social Sciences Journal Vol. 10, 504-513, August 2020 ISSN: 2668-7798 www.techniumscience.com