4 Central Asia in the Belt and Road Initiative Policy-taker or policy-shaper? Li-Chen Sim and Farkhod Aminjonov Central Asia is in an unenviable position of being a key pillar in the ambitions of much larger neighbors to the south-east (China) and to the north (Russia). On the one hand, China perceives Central Asia as one of the pillars of its Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), thanks to the region’s abundant natural resources, proximity to the less developed inner regions of China, and position along the overland route to European markets that circumvents the maritime “Malacca dilemma.” Consequently, it has been referred to as “the thickest piece of cake given to the modern Chinese by the heavens.” 1 On the other hand, Russia claims Central Asia as part of its “near abroad” in view of the region’s signif- cance for Russian security and the shared Tsarist/Soviet legacy since the nine- teenth century. Indeed, some Central Asian states are members of a Russian-led security organization, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, while others belong to the Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Union. Central Asia, therefore, “seems to make sense in international affairs mainly in terms of its geographic location: it is always set in a spatial relationship with another region or country,” 2 be it as a buffer zone or transit corridor. At the same time, however, Central Asian states zealously defend their sovereignty via multi- vector foreign policies or even neutrality (in the case of Turkmenistan) and have reached out to extra-regional powers to balance their giant neighbors. This chapter will examine the challenges to the SREB at the regional and inter- national levels. The frst part of the chapter provides an overview of the trade and invest- ment dynamics in Central Asia. The second part discusses Central Asia’s role in China’s SREB and vice versa, while the third section examines the extent to which Russia and other extra-regional powers affect the success of the SREB region’s signifcance for Russia’s economic and security policies. Unlike conventional analyzes that depict Central Asia as mere pawns in the game between great powers, the chapter posits that the agency exercised by some Central Asian states has and will pose challenges to the grand designs of their more powerful neighbors, including China’s SREB. 3 In other words, while Central Asia will undoubtedly be impacted by the SREB, it is not merely a policy-taker but will also, to some extent, be able to shape the success of the SREB. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45