The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework q Christian Bauer a,⇑ , Johannes Hofer a , Hans-Jörg Althaus b,1 , Andrea Del Duce b,2 , Andrew Simons a,3 a Technology Assessment Group, Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen PSI, Switzerland b Technology and Society Lab, Empa, Duebendorf, Switzerland highlights  We perform Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of current and future passenger vehicles.  We include gasoline, diesel and natural gas as well as battery and fuel cell cars.  An integrated vehicle simulation framework guarantees consistency.  Only electric cars with ‘‘clean’’ electricity and H 2 allow for pollution mitigation.  Complete LCA is mandatory for environmental evaluation of vehicle technologies. article info Article history: Received 30 August 2014 Received in revised form 2 December 2014 Accepted 5 January 2015 Available online 7 February 2015 Keywords: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Passenger vehicles Environmental performance Vehicle modeling abstract This paper contains an evaluation of the environmental performance of a comprehensive set of current and future mid-size passenger vehicles. We present a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based on a novel integrated vehicle simulation framework, which allows for consistency in vehicle parameter settings and consideration of future technological progress. Conventional and hybrid gasoline, diesel and natural gas cars as well as battery and fuel cell electric vehicles (BEV and FCV) are analyzed, taking into account electricity and hydrogen production chains from fossil, nuclear and renewable energy resources. Our results show that a substantial mitigation of climate change can be obtained with electric passen- ger vehicles, provided that non-fossil energy resources are used for electricity and hydrogen production. However, in terms of other environmental burdens such as acidification, particulate matter formation, and toxicity, BEV may in some cases and FCV are likely to perform worse than modern fossil fueled cars as a consequence of emissions along vehicle and fuel production chains. Therefore, the electrification of road transportation should be accompanied by an integration of life cycle management in vehicle man- ufacturing chains as well as energy and transport policies in order to counter potential environmental drawbacks. Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Over the last 60 years, the global passenger vehicle fleet has annually grown by about 5%, reaching about 900 million vehicles in 2013 and consuming more than 20 million barrels of crude oil per day. This fleet is expected to increase up to 1.7 billion vehicles in 2035 [1]. Current passenger vehicles are predominantly fueled by crude-oil based fuels and therefore a substantial source of CO 2 emissions. In addition, these vehicles are important sources of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NO x ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and particulate matter (PM), which are increasingly contributing to http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.019 0306-2619/Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. q This paper is included in the Special Issue of Clean Transport edited by Prof. Anthony Roskilly, Dr. Roberto Palacin and Prof. Yan. ⇑ Corresponding author at: OHSA D17, Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen PSI, Switzerland. Tel.: +41 (0)56310 2391. E-mail address: christian.bauer@psi.ch (C. Bauer). 1 Current address: Swisscleantech, Zurich, Switzerland. 2 Current address: Quantis, Zurich, Switzerland. 3 Current address: Simons Stotz & Co, Sustainable Practices (3SP), Grasswil, Switzerland. Applied Energy 157 (2015) 871–883 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Applied Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy