77 ISSN 2334-3745 October 2020 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 14, Issue 5 A Comparative Analysis of the Nature and Evolution of the Domestic Jihadist Threat to Australia and Canada (2000–2020) by Shandon Harris-Hogan, Lorne L. Dawson and Amarnath Amarasingam Abstract Tis article traces the evolution of the jihadist threat to Australia and Canada across the frst 20 years of this century. First, this study examines and compares the incidents of jihadist terrorist violence that have occurred. Second, it analyses disrupted and failed terrorist plots that occurred during this period, documenting the full scale of the threat to each country. Finally, it examines and compares the characteristics of all jihadists arrested for, or killed committing, domestic terrorism ofenses. Findings reveal a marked similarity in the numbers of incidents, disrupted plots, and characteristics of the individuals arrested across Canada and Australia, but also some key diferences with important implications for understanding the diverse local manifestations of the global threat, even in highly similar societal contexts. Te identifcation of these patterns has implications for theorizing about the factors infuencing the process of radicalization leading to violence in each national context and generally, as well as the local adaptation of strategies for countering violent extremism. Keywords: Australia, Canada, jihadism, terrorist incidents Introduction Previous studies of the jihadist threat to Australia and Canada have documented lower rates of terrorism than has occurred in Western Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Yet, they have also stressed that each country still faces signifcant challenges, ones ofen in line with global trends.[1] Accordingly, the governments of Australia and Canada have made substantial investments into improving their counter terrorism capabilities, and have developed specialised programs intended to counter and prevent violent extremism. Operating within the “fve eyes” relationship for sharing intelligence (a long-standing strategic arrangement between the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand), much of these eforts have been coordinated. However, the level of threat, and the policies and practices required to respond to that threat, difer in small, but signifcant ways according to local circumstances. While the media has called attention to the nature of this threat, and how it has evolved across time, this information is episodic, scattered, and sometimes unreliable. More nuanced analysis regarding jihadist activity in Australia and Canada is available in a handful of published academic studies. However, most of these studies are case specifc,[2] while only a few provide empirical data on the overall nature of the threat in Australia and Canada.[3] Many of these studies also are restricted in scope, and confate data on foreign fghters with those involved in domestic acts of terrorism. Importantly, studies that do provide an overview are now almost a decade old. As such, they largely document the turn from the threat of international terrorism posed by al Qaeda and its afliates, to that posed by the more autonomous local networks of jihadists characteristic of “homegrown terrorism”.[4] Consequently, most do not take into consideration the dramatic escalation in the jihadist threat that occurred with the rise of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS).[5] Of the three specifc studies that do touch on this emerging threat,[6] each only calls on very preliminary data, and in most instances, provides only a discussion regarding future possibilities. Te following collects and organises contemporary data on jihadist attacks and plots, and their perpetrators, to update the information publicly available and further examine the evolving nature of the threat to Australia and Canada across the last 20 years. It builds upon previous studies documenting local activities by studying domestic jihadists, including those inspired by the Islamic State, and the ways they have posed a threat to Australians and Canadians.