Comorbidities in patients with COVID-19,case study:Baja California, using ANN Bogart Yail Márquez , ElizabethAguilar-Calderón, Arnulfo Alanís, Maribel Guerrero-Luis Instituto Tecnológico de Tijuana Tijuana, Baja California bogart@tectijuana.edu.mx AbstractｲThis project's main objective is to discover which are those comorbidities that could lead to a fatal outcome in a patient diagnosed with COVID-19 in the state of Baja California through a classification algorithm using neural networks. For this, a database obtained on the federal government portal by the General Directorate of Epidemiology with a cutoff date of June 8, 2020 was used. Only the records of the residents of Baja California were kept and only the following data: Sex, Municipality, Date of death, Age, all those variables referring to morbidities, Result (Confirmed cases of COVID-19), ICU (If they needed to enter the intensive care unit); also, from the variable of the date also, from the date variable of death, another variable called "Deceased" was generated to categorize whether the patient died or not. The resulting database was imported into the software where the model of the neural network, data preparation was performed and built the neural network model (multilayer perceptron). The dependent variable "Deceased" was selected, as variables the variables referring to the patient's comorbidities and as a covariate the variable of the scalar type Age. For this model, a random partition of the data was carried out, where 70% of the data was assigned for training and the remaining 30% for tests, obtaining a success rate of 82% and an 18 % error. Keywords—COVID-19; comorbidities; fatal outcome; neural networks; classification algorithms… I. INTRODUCTION According to the World Health Organization [13] the current pandemic due to the disease called COVID-19 has caused more than 450,000 deaths worldwide. According to various studies such as the one carried out in the city of Wuhan, China [3] the majority of patients who have died from COVID-19 have been found to have at least one other underlying condition. In our country, for approximately 20 years there has been an increase in the number of deaths due to morbidity, chronic non-communicable diseases and externally caused diseases[5]. II. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK A. COVID-19 Coronaviruses are an extensive family of viruses that can cause disease in both animals and humans. In humans, it has been known so far that they can cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more serious illnesses such as Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), both with a mortality rate of 37% and 10% respectively [3], [6]. According to Pérez, Manuel[6],"COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), its shape is round or oval and often polymorphic, it has a diameter of 60 to 140 nm, the spike protein that is found on the virus surface and forms a rod-shaped structure, is the structure used for typing, the nucleocapsid protein encapsulates the viral genome and can be used as a diagnostic antigen". B. COVID-19 clinical phenotype The main initial symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, cough, fatigue, muscle pain, and dyspnea. Some patients showed atypical symptoms, such as diarrhea and vomiting. Sudden loss of smell and taste have also been observed (without mucus being the cause). In severe cases it is characterized by pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, and septic shock. In the same way, there are people who can be non-symptomatic[6], [11]. C. Comorbidities According to Rosas Oscar,et al.[8] "The term comorbidity was introduced to medicine by Alvan Feinstein (1970) when he observed that errors in classifying and analyzing comorbidity had led to many difficulties in the results in medical studies. Therefore, he defined comorbidity as the existence of a different additional clinical entity that occurs during the clinical course of a patient with an indexed disease under study". According to studies conducted in Wuhan, China, the clinical phenotype was confused by the fact that 25.2% of patients had at least one other underlying medical condition. The higher mortality rate in this region was due to more to people with morbid conditions[11]. D. Mortality rate in Mexico According to the Pan American Health Organization [5] "Mexico for approximately 20 years has presented an epidemiological transition due to a decrease in communicable and parasitic diseases and an increase in the morbidity and mortality of chronic non-communicable diseases and diseases of external causeｴ as can be seen in the graph from Fig. 1 obtained from the information system platform of the Secretaría de Salud (Ministry of Health) [9]. 312 © IEEE 2020. This article is free to access and download, along with rights for full text and data mining, re-use and analysis Authorized licensed use limited to: IEEE Xplore. Downloaded on October 23,2020 at 00:56:54 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.