FORECASTING FUTURE RIVERBANK EROSION MODEL USING KERNEL DENSITY AND LINE BUFFERING METHOD Norhafizi Mohamad 1 , Mohd Faisal Abdul Khanan 2 , Anuar Ahmad* 3 and Ami Hassan Md Din 4 1, 2,3,4 Department of Geoinformation , Faculty of Built Environment and Surveying, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Johor, MALAYSIA. (E-mail: pijieypih@gmail.com, mdfaisal@utm.my, *anuarahmad@utm.my, amihassan@utm.my) ABSTRACT Future riverbank erosion model is essential to forecast the impacts on affected areas due to riverbank erosion phenomenon. However, how close the model to the exact location depends on the historical evaluation and dynamic factor, including the erosion direction, the erosion rates area, and the average shifted distance. This study aimed is to forecast the future riverbank erosion model using kernel density and line buffering method, which includes the parameters as mentioned earlier. Kernel density method was applied into the average eroded rates and the direction of eroded riverbank based on the specified search radius and the population field value. Meanwhile, the line buffering method, which based on Euclidean buffers, was applied into the average erosion distance of 12 years erosion data to create half-buffer polygons at the riverbank. The study area segregated the hotspot into 12 sections along the Kilim River, based on the erosion rates from the historical data. The finding showed that Section A, B, I, and L potentially to have a very high erosion risk in the year 2027, while the remaining sections tend to experienced low and shallow erosion risk. A significant increases in the projected riverbank line shifting also supports the finding obtained from future riverbank erosion model. Keywords: Future Riverbank Erosion Model, Kernel Density, Line Buffering, Kilim River INTRODUCTION Riverbank erosion is the natural phenomenon that is eventually changing and affecting the river morphology over the long-term period [1, 2, 3, 4]. There are several causes such as boat-wakes, unstable riverbank structure, sea-level rise, extreme rainfall and cyclone that accelerate riverbank erosion process [5]. Continuous erosion is not only affecting the river morphology but also the natural and human-made structures along the river [6]. However, the mitigation process is challenging to undertake since the pattern of riverbank erosion hotspot is dynamic and hard to be predicted without proper method [7, 8]. Fortunately, few methods have potential to forecast the riverbank erosion model and erosion rates in the future. Kernel density and line buffering method are hypothetically effective in predicting the riverbank erosion model using historical erosion rates. It is also effective because of several parameters comprise the erosion direction, the common area, and the IGCESH2020 Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Malaysia 17 -19 August 2020