ACCURACY OF DIFFERENT PRICE FORECASTING MODELS FOR MAIZE IN NIMBAHERA MARKET OF RAJASTHAN Hemant Sharma* and S.S. Burark 1 Agro-Economic Research Centre, SPUVVN, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Anand-388 120, India. 1 Deptt. of Agril. Economics and Management, RCA, MPUAT, Udaipur-313 001, India. E-mail : Sharmah007@gmail.com Abstract : Analysis of prices overtime is important for formulating a sound agricultural policy. Fluctuations in market arrivals largely contribute to price instability. Such an analysis is also useful for farmers in order to decide the suitable time to disposing off their produce to their best advantage. In view of this the present study was undertaken by collecting monthly prices of maize in major maize markets of Rajasthan for a period of 12 years (2002 to 2013). The various forms of ARIMA (Box- Jenkins model), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Exponential Smoothing models (Single, Double and triple) were employed to predict the future prices of maize in Nibhahera market. The performance of fitted models were examined by computing the various measure of goodness of fit, viz., Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Standard Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Among all the models tried, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model (1, 1, 1) was found best fit with least AIC (1677.17), SBC (1685.86), MAD (71.04), MSE (11477.78) and MAPE (5.64) as compared to the other models. Thus, it was the most representative model for the price forecast of maize in Nimbahera market of Rajasthan. The developed model can be used as a policy instrument for the producers and sellers. Key words : ARIMA, ANN, Exponential Smoothing, wholesale price, Forecasting. 1. Introduction Maize (Zea mays L.), queen of cereals, after wheat and rice is the most important cereal grain crop in the world, providing nutrients for human being and animals and serving as a basic raw material for the production of starch, oil and protein, alcoholic beverages, food sweeteners and more recently, fuel. Maize grain contains about 10% protein, 4% oil, 70% carbohydrate, 2.3% crude fibre, 10.4% albuminoides and 1.4% ash. Maize grain also has sufficient quantities of vitamin A, nicotinic acid, riboflavin and vitamin E. During the year 2012-13, maize was cultivated in 167 million hectares globally leading to a production of 833 million tonnes. USA, Argentina and Brazil are the top three maize producer and exporter countries in the world. The prominent importing countries include Japan, European Union, Malaysia, Taiwan, Korea etc. Maize is an important staple food in many countries and its acreage is increasing continuously at global level. India ranks among the top 10 producers and exports to Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Middle East and South East Asian countries. India produces around 15 million tonnes of maize annually. This contributes to about two per cent of the total world production. Karnataka occupies the highest area with 12.4 lakh hectare followed by Rajasthan (10.97 lakh ha), Madhya Pradesh (8.32 lakh ha), Maharashtra (7.94 lakh ha), Andhra Pradesh (7.83 lakh ha), Uttar Pradesh (7.04 lakh ha) and Bihar (6.32 lakh ha). As growth in demand of poultry feed is increasing, the demand for maize is also going up. According to the ASSOCHAM, poultry sector forms the largest chunk (51% of total maize consumption in India) followed by human consumption (26%), starch (12%) and livestock feeds (11%). According to the reports of Indian Maize Development Association (IMDA), India’s demand for maize is likely to be 22.73 million tonnes in 2012-13, out of which 19.66 million tonnes would be for uses like poultry and cattle feed. The increasing importance of Maize in India is *Author for correspondence Received February 28, 2016 Revised June 21, 2016 Accepted July 17, 2016 Int. J. Agricult. Stat. Sci. Vol. 12, Supplement 1, pp. 95-101, 2016 ISSN : 0973-1903 ORIGINAL ARTICLE