Radiocarbon, Vol 00, Nr 00, 2020, p 1–21 DOI:10.1017/RDC.2020.107 Selected Papers from the 9th Radiocarbon & Archaeology Symposium, Athens, GA, USA, 20–24 May 2019 © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press for the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona USING RADIOCARBON DATA TO CHRONOLOGICALLY CONTROL POPULATION DENSITY ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM SYSTEMATICALLY COLLECTED INTRA-SETTLEMENT DISTRIBUTIONAL DATA Brandon T Ritchison* University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Anthropology, Urbana, IL 61801-3028 USA ABSTRACT. Population density is an important variable in the development of social complexity. Estimating population densities from the archaeological record requires combining estimates of population, area, and time. Archaeological population estimates tend to be reported as a maximum population derived from the total accumulation of discrete archaeological material types, usually ceramics or radiocarbon ( 14 C) dates. However, given the palimpsest nature of the archaeological record at recurrently occupied archaeological sites, these maximal, total estimates are, at best, a poor reflection of contemporaneous populations. I present a method for calculating average yearly population densities for occupations at a large, multicomponent site using a combination of distributional data and 60 14 C dates. By employing this method at other sites in the same region, modeling intra-regional population dynamics at fine time scales will be possible. KEYWORDS: Bayesian modeling, ceramics, coastal, paleodemography, settlement. INTRODUCTION Accurately and precisely estimating past populations has long been a primary goal for archaeologists (Naroll 1962; Hassan 1981; Bocquet-Appel et al. 2005; Milner and Chaplin 2010; Bintliff and Sbonias 2016). While the impetuses for estimating past populations have varied over time, we recognize that population density is a significant variable in the development and transformations of societies. Accurate population estimates help us more fully understand the dynamic relationships that exist between people and their environments (Bandy 2004; Warrick 2008; Milner et al. 2013; Shennan et al. 2013; Liebmann et al. 2016). Numerous middle-range theoretical and methodological approaches have been applied in the pursuit of accurate, useful population estimates. At the broadest scale, population sizes can be estimated based on the carrying capacity of the environment, if information about environmental conditions and subsistence practices and technologies is available. At more specific scales, Warrick (2008) and others (e.g., Hassan 1981) have argued that settlement data of various kinds are best for estimating populations. Radiocarbon ( 14 C) dates as data have also been used, at various scales, as yet another proxy for measuring ancient populations (Rick 1987; Peros et al. 2010; Steele 2010; Bamforth and Grund 2012; Timpson et al. 2014). Each of these approaches have their own strengths and weaknesses. For example, both total settlement area and household-level estimates can be used to model population size (Warrick 2008; Brannan and Birch 2017), yet settlement-area methods produce less accurate estimates than methods based on intra-settlement data. Settlement area-based estimates are synchronic in nature and estimates derived from occupational area are therefore, at best, a reflection of the sum of occupation and therefore represent the maximum sum of population for a given period. The problem of contemporaneity in archaeology is a perennial one (Schacht 1984; Cameron 1990; Dewar 1991; Grove 2012). Without temporal control, occupation *Corresponding author. Email: britch@illinois.edu. Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/RDC.2020.107 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. University of Illinois at Urbana - Champaign Library, on 03 Nov 2020 at 22:42:57, subject to the