Int. J. Sustainable Economy, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2020 81
Copyright © 2020 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
The impact of sovereign credit rating changes on
government bond yields in South Africa
Misheck Mutize* and McBride M. Nkhalamba
African Peer Review Mechanism,
230 15th Rd., Midrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Email: misheck.mutize@aprm-au.org
Email: mcbride.nkhalamba@aprm-au.org
*Corresponding author
Abstract: This study applies an event study analysis on Standard & Poor’s
(S&P), Fitch and Moody’s sovereign credit ratings for South Africa over the
period 2007 to 2018 to investigate the impact of long-term foreign currency
sovereign credit ratings changes on 30-year sovereign bond yield. Results of
the analysis find a generally significant increase in bond yields before, during
and after credit rating downgrades and negative outlook events. However, there
was no statistically significant impact on bond yields associated with upgrades
and positive outlook events. It is thus concluded that investors in
South Africa’s long-term bonds are more sensitive to negative credit rating
events, which are mainly driven by structural problems in the economy. This
paper recommends monetary and fiscal authorities to address the concerns
raised by rating agencies in review reports leading to negative outlook and
downgrades before they become more apparent to trigger negative rating
actions.
Keywords: credit rating; bond yield; downgrades; upgrade; outlooks;
South Africa.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Mutize, M. and
Nkhalamba, M.M. (2020) ‘The impact of sovereign credit rating changes on
government bond yields in South Africa’, Int. J. Sustainable Economy, Vol. 12,
No. 1, pp.81–100.
Biographical notes: Misheck Mutize is a researcher affiliated with the
University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business in South Africa, and
holds a Doctor of Philosophy and Master of Science degrees in Finance and
Investment from the same university. He has researched extensively on African
governance policy, state-owned enterprises, corruption, poverty and other
socio-economic development.
McBride M. Nkhalamba is the Head of Research and Methodology Division in
the African Peer Review Mechanism, an agency of the African Union. He has
been involved, in key roles, in a number of Continental Policy and Governance
Initiatives of the African Union.