Research on GIS based Scenario Planning Methods and Applications Qingming Zhan School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, China Research Centre for Digital City, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China qmzhan@whu.edu.cn Jun Zhou School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, China Research Centre for Digital City, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China lionalec@126.com Abstract—On the concept of scenario planning, this paper focuses on the relationships between scenario planning, MCE-GIS and planning support systems. We integrate the idea of scenario planning and GIS technology, and use actual case study to verify the feasibility of this method, in order to support urban planning and urban development. Keywords: GIS; scenario planning; planning support system; MCE I INTRODUCTION The development of GIS technology went through from the late 80s, early 90s to nowadays. In the field of urban planning in China, GIS technology has been widely applied in variety of practical work, such as computer-aided planning and design, planning control, supporting decision-making etc. Meanwhile, it has made tremendous progress. However, due to the complexity of urban system itself, the uncertainty of the urban development, the rapid development of urbanization in China, as well as the restriction of the GIS technology itself, clearly we can point out that only the use of GIS technology can not grasp the dynamic properties of urban development fully and accurately. In this case, there is required to make the correct and accurate interpretation of the conditions for urban development in an uncertain environment, in order to achieve the multi-objective optimization of development in a city. At the same time, with the development of the society, the beneficiary bodies composed of the citizens, planners, government and developers will be all-sided participation in the entire process of urban planning. Inevitably, there is necessity for us to exam the potential of the GIS technology, as the core of the information technologies, also to translate the comments and recommendations of each stakeholder into the instructional planning-support information, which provides important accordance for the decision support in urban development [1]. This may be the way to fully integrate the ideas of government authorities, scientific supporting and public participation in urban planning. II INTRODUCTION OF SCENARIO PLANNING METHOD Scenario is a description of the future events and a series of facts causing a state of affairs from the initial condition to its future development [2]. The scenario planning or scenario analysis based on scenario is the analysis and construction of the possible future development, also known as the illustrative scenarios. The scenario analysis is a forecasting method, which describes the future scenarios of system by writing the script, and analyzes the variety of the future situations [3]. Compared with the traditional forecasting methods, scenario planning emphasis more on the possibility, diversity and systematic approach as well as the intelligent characteristics of the objects’ development. Meanwhile, it recognizes the people’s "active role" in future development [4], and provides scientific support for further urban development. With the implementation of the "Town and Country Planning Act of China", more and more people tend to protect their "ownership" rights in urban planning, and give their own opinions or suggestions. Therefore, in the future of city, there will be a number of different development scenarios, shown in Figure 1. Figure 1 Scenarios of urban development involved multi-agent Current situation of city Future of city Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 …… Government Planners Citizens Developers 978-1-4244-5326-9/10/$26.00 ©2010 IEEE