International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science (IJAERS) ISSN: 2349-6495(P) | 2456-1908(O) Vol-8, Issue-2; Feb, 2021 Journal Home Page Available: https://ijaers.com/ Journal DOI: 10.22161/ijaers Article DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.82.12 www.ijaers.com Page | 84 Evaluation and selection of scenario-based digital Transformation Projects Alexandre Caramelo Pinto 1 , Alexandre Acácio de Andrade 2 , Julio Francisco Blumetti Facó 3 , Jadir Perpétuo dos Santos 4 1 Instituto de desenvolvimento educacional (IDE), FGV – Fundação Getulio Vargas, Brazil 2,3 Center for Engineering, Modelling, and Applied Social Sciences, Universidade Federal do ABC, Brazil 4 Universidade Cruzeiro do Sul. Brazil Received: 21 Nov 2020; Received in revised form: 08 Jan 2021; Accepted: 04 Feb 2021; Available online: 12 Feb 2021 ©2021 The Author(s). Published by AI Publication. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Keywords— digital transformation, Industry 4.0, scenarios, portfolio management, information technology and communication Abstract— The advent of digital transformation, also known as Industry 4.0, has brought considerable challenges to organizations from various industries. The effects of its relevance and intensity can be observed in the relations between organizations, between individuals and the first and governments with these two entities. By encompassing the intense use of information and communication technologies (ICTs), it raises the need for careful evaluation and selection of projects aimed at digitally transforming, business processes, business models and customer experience to interact with the first two. In this sense, portfolio management which includes the evaluation and selection of projects, has numerous methods of analysis ranging from financial tools to strategic approaches. Therefore, selection of the method directly influences the quality of the decision made, as well as obtaining the optimal portfolio of projects. This study is dedicated to exploring the use of scenarios to support the analysis and selection of digital transformation projects. This research is qualitative, exploratory, descriptive in nature and is structured through ground theory method (GTM) applied in 7 (seven) Brazilian telecommunications operators. The main contribution of this study is the proposition of a framework that integrates prospective scenarios of evaluation and selection of projects in organizations in a structured manner helping them to conduct their digital transformation, through the creation of digital capabilities. I. INTRODUCTION The digital transformation as envisioned by Andal- Ancion, Cartwritgh and Yip (2003) positions itself, as a phenomenon that alters the current technological paradigm (Dosi, 1983) and finally, the technological trajectory (Nelson & Winter, 1977) of how business will be done from now on. In a similar proposition, one of the visions of digital transformation appears from the German perspective and is called Industry 4.0 or fourth industrial revolution. This vision addresses innovations with a strong technological base that affect relations between people and organizations and served as a starting point to improve the competitiveness of German industry since 2011 (Hermann, Pentek & Otto, 2016; Schwab, 2016). In that sense, correct evaluation and selection of innovation projects connected to digital transformation, which occur in portfolio management (Cooper, Edgett & Kleinschmidt, 1999, 2001) shall include not only concepts with a strong technological base such as: big data, cloud computing , mobility, internet of things, artificial and cognitive