06/03/2021 Missile attack escalation highlights need for Iran nuclear deal revival – Responsible Statecraft https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/03/05/missile-attack-escalation-highlights-need-for-iran-nuclear-deal-revival/ 1/2 RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT  Recent comments from CENTCOM Commander General Frank McKenzie about Iran’s 2020 strike on an American base in Iraq, if proven true, highlight once more the imperative need for President Biden to quickly kickstart the Iran nuclear deal’s revival. After days of suspense and unease, the world breathed a collective sigh of relief when Donald Trump signaled on January 8 2020 that the United States would not be responding militarily to Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on its forces in Iraq. The strikes had been in retaliation for the U.S. killing of revered Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Trump’s announcement marked the end of a military dust-up that could have easily mutated into a fully-fledged war with Iran. As news of the strike splashed frantically across media outlets, policymakers, pundits, and analysts alike wondered whether the Iranians intentionally avoided U.S. casualties in order to prevent further escalation. This theory gained traction when the Iraqi government announced it had been notified in advance by Iranian authorities of their plans to attack American bases inside Iraq. This was seen by some analysts as Iran’s way of giving U.S. forces a heads-up and thus ample time to take shelter before the missiles hit. Gauging Iran’s intent was further complicated by the mixed signals coming from within the Trump administration. While U.S. officials as senior as Vice President Mike Pence, Joint Chiefs chairman General Mark Milley, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated their conviction that Iran’s strikes had indeed been launched with the express intention to kill Americans, Trump had emerged as the lone optimist, describing the damage to U.S. forces as “minimal” and claiming that Iran was now “standing down.” But ever since the strike took place in January 2020, a growing body of evidence has challenged the notion that the Iranian leadership went to great lengths to avoid the specter of dead American troops. A recently-aired 60 Minutes piece lends further credence to these earlier reports. Here, too, eye-witness accounts depict a state of utter disarray at the base as the ballistic missile salvos slammed into the base: troops scrambling for cover, dozens crammed into ill-equipped bunkers made for a much smaller number of people, and desperate attempts to avoid being burned alive by the ensuing explosions and fires. But in addition to these eye-witness accounts, 60 Minutes also aired an interview with McKenzie, which casts further doubt on the contention that Iran intended a non-lethal outcome. Iran, according to McKenzie, had purchased commercial satellite images of the base on the day of the strike. McKenzie said he waited until Iran had purchased its last image of the day before ordering the evacuation of the base. The out-of-date maps accessible to Iran, he claims, would have shown a sprawling and fully operational base with U.S. troops and aircraft. This, McKenzie claims, is the map the Iranians were acting on. According to the 60 Minutes piece, although most service personnel had evacuated the base, a substantial number had to remain. Between 100 and 150 U.S. troops, McKenzie said, could very well have been killed in the strike. And yet despite the intensity of the firepower, as well as the ensuing explosions and fires, not one soldier was killed. (Though around 110 U.S. service members were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injury.) Missile attack escalation highlights need for Iran nuclear deal revival Written by Sajjad Safaei IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL