Hindawi Publishing Corporation Journal of Cancer Epidemiology Volume 2013, Article ID 916394, 7 pages http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/916394 Research Article Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence Rates by Age and Stage at Diagnosis in Gharbiah, Egypt, over 10 Years (1999–2008) Kelly A. Hirko, 1 Amr S. Soliman, 2 Ahmed Hablas, 3 Ibrahim A. Seifeldin, 4 Mohamed Ramadan, 4 Mousumi Banerjee, 5 Joe B. Harford, 6 Robert M. Chamberlain, 1,7 and Sofia D. Merajver 1,8 1 Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA 2 Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, 984355 University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE 68198, USA 3 Gharbiah Cancer Society, Tanta, Gharbiah, Egypt 4 Tanta Cancer Center, Tanta, Gharbiah, Egypt 5 Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA 6 Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Global Health, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA 7 Department of Epidemiology, University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA 8 Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA Correspondence should be addressed to Amr S. Soliman; amr.soliman@unmc.edu Received 21 June 2013; Revised 9 September 2013; Accepted 10 September 2013 Academic Editor: Florence Menegaux Copyright © 2013 Kelly A. Hirko et al. Tis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Background. Tis study was undertaken to evaluate trends in breast cancer incidence in Egypt from 1999 to 2008 and to make projections for breast cancer occurrence for the years 2009–2015. Patients and Methods. We utilized joinpoint regression and average annual percent change (AAPC) measures with 95% confdence intervals (CI) to describe the trends in breast cancer incidence rates from the Gharbiah Cancer Registry by age and stage at diagnosis and to estimate expected breast cancer caseloads for 2009–2015. Results. From 1999 to 2008, the AAPC in breast cancer incidence rates in Gharbiah signifcantly increased among women 50 years and older and among localized tumors (AAPC %, 95% CI, 3.1% to 8.0%). Our results predict a signifcant increase in breast cancer caseloads from 2009 to 2015 among women aged 30–39 (AAPC %, 95% CI, 0.9% to 1.1%) and among women aged 40–49 years (AAPC %, 95% CI, 1.0% to 2.6%). Conclusion. Tese results have important implications for allocating limited resources, managing treatment needs, and exploring the consequences of prior interventions and/or changing risk factors in Egypt and other developing countries at the same stages of demographic and health transitions. 1. Introduction Breast cancer rates are increasing in developing countries, including Egypt, and are largely attributed to aging of the population, delay in time of frst pregnancy, decrease in number of children and in breastfeeding, and a move toward high-calorie Western diets [1–4]. Although breast cancer incidence rates in Egypt are substantially lower than the rates in the United States and other developed countries [5–7], breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Egypt [8]. Furthermore, the current demographic trends favor the likelihood that breast cancer will become an even greater public health concern in Egypt in the future. Trends in the stage at diagnosis of breast cancer in the Gharbiah registry have not been reported, and this information is critical for evaluation of downstaging eforts. Detailed information on trends of breast cancer by stage of diagnosis may promote the reduction of disparities in the presentation of disease by focusing limited resources on the susceptible populations and can aid in our overall understanding of the etiology of breast cancer in a setting that