L. Antunes and K. Takadama (Eds.): MABS 2006, LNAI 4442, pp. 1–14, 2007.
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007
Exploring the Vast Parameter Space
of Multi-Agent Based Simulation
Takao Terano
Department of Computational Intelligence and Systems Sciences,
Tokyo Institute of Technology
4259 Nagatsuda-Cho, Midori-ku, Yokohama 226-8502, Japan
terano@dis.titech.ac.jp
Abstract. This paper addresses the problem regarding the parameter
exploration of Multi-Agent Based Simulation for social systems. We focus on
the principles of Inverse Simulation and Genetics-Based Validation. In
conventional artificial society models, the simulation is executed
straightforwardly: Initially, many micro-level parameters and initial conditions
are set, then, the simulation steps are executed, and finally the macro-level
results are observed. Unlike this, Inverse Simulation executes these steps in the
reverse order: set a macro-level objective function, evolve the worlds to fit to
the objectives, then observe the micro-level agent characteristics. Another
unique point of our approach is that, using Genetic Algorithms with the
functionalities of multi-modal and multi-objective function optimization, we
are able to validate the sensitivity of the solutions. This means that, from the
same initial conditions and the same objective function, we can evolve different
results, which we often observe in real world phenomena. This is the principle
of Genetics-Based Validation.
Keywords: Multi-Agent Based Modeling, Social Systems, Verification and
Validation, Parameter Exploration, Genetic Algorithms.
1 Introduction
As Alan Kay stated, the best way to predict the future is to invent it. When we use
Multi-agent based simulation (MABS) for social systems, we always invent a new
world, or a new bird-view-like point, because we are able to design the simulation
world as we would like to. Therefore, when we use MABS, we are predicting some
future. After several decades of the Allan Kay’s statements, we have a new gear for
predicting the future: MABS is a new modeling paradigm [1],[2].
MABS focuses from global phenomena to individuals in the model and tries to
observe how individuals with individual characteristics or “agents” will behave as a
group. The strength of MABS is that it stands between the case studies and
mathematical models. It enables us to validate social theories by executing programs,
along with description of the subject and strict theoretical development.
In MABS, behaviors and statuses of individual agents are coded into prog-
rams by researchers. They also implement information and analytical systems in the