IV. ULUSLARARASI İNSANİ BİLİMLER SEMPOZYUMU E-RESS INTERNATIONAL HUMAN SCIENCE CONGRESS CHARACTERISTICS AND DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS IN COVID19 PROCESS IN TURKEY 1 Dr. Musa ÖZTÜRK Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Büyükkutlu Faculty of Applied Sciences, Department of Banking and Insurance, musaozturk@isparta.edu.tr , ORCID ID: 0000-0002-0902-5787 Abstract One of the most important factors determining the attitudes and behaviors of economic agents is expectations. Developments in expectations can trigger large-scale changes in production, savings, investment, and sharing, especially in consumption. For this reason, expectations have been dealt with directly and indirectly since D. Ricardo. In today's world, expectations are constantly and closely followed by public institutions and private enterprises. Expectations are analyzed through confidence and business tendency surveys. Considering Turkey in particular; it is seen that the expectations are followed monthly as the economic confidence index (ECI), consumer confidence index (CCI), real sector confidence index (RSCI), and sectoral confidence indices (services SCI, construction CI and retail sales RTCI) by TURKSTAT&CBRT. These indices are calculated between 0 and 200, and 100 indicates neutral status, 100+ positivity, and 100- pessimism. In the study, the structure and development of the expectations in Turkey are examined through confidence indices data covering the period 2011M01-2020M09, and structural breaks in the series are investigated by Bai-Perron multiple structural break test. Thus, possible scenarios for economic recovery after the COVID19 are tried to be shown. Looking at the average values of the series from the descriptive statistics, it is seen that RSCI and RTCI are positive and the others are pessimistic. The coefficients of skewness in the series are negatively signed. This situation indicates that most of the expectations are higher than the average value, in other words, large breaks occurred in the series over time. According to Kurtosis data CCI is platykurtic and others are leptokurtic. Considering before and after the COVID19 Pandemic, it is observed that there are serious decreases in the average of the series and recovery may take time. In the examinations made over the graphics, it is seen that the ECI was mostly broken especially during the curfew period, and could not recover. While CCI, which was pessimistic before COVID19, became even more pessimistic in the process, it is seen that RSCI experienced a V-type fracture and mostly recovered after the curfew period. The graphs of the sectoral confidence indexes show that the construction sector is the most pessimistic sector, followed by the services sector over time and that all series have experienced a serious break with the pandemic process. Among these, it is noteworthy that RTCI is the fastest recovering series, followed by construction and services. According to Bai-Perron 1 This is the full text of the study presented at the e-RESS International Human Science Congress and the improved version of this study was sent to IFBAR journal for evaluation.