Risk Factors Analysis of High Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Mainland China Using GIS and Remote Sensing Jianping Guo 1,4 , Yong Xue 1,2* , Chunxiang Cao 1 , Wuchun Cao 3* , Shaobo Zhong 1,4 , Guoyin Cai 1 , Xiaowen Li 1 , and Liqun Fang 3 1 State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O.Box 9718, Beijing 100101, China 2 Department of Computing, London Metropolitan University, 166-220 Holloway N7 8DB, UK 3 Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, The Academy of Military Medical Chinese People's Liberation Army, Beijing 100071,China 4 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China E-mail: {jpguo_irsa@lab.irsa.ac.cn, y.xue@londonmet.ac.uk} Abstract—Remote sensing and geographic information system, combined with methods of spatial statistics, provide powerful new tools for understanding the epidemiology of diseases and for improving disease prevention and control, the same holds true in High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) epidemic. The study is to determine such risk factors as distance from HPAI outbreak sites to highway using GIS, and land surface temperature around HPAI outbreak sites retrieved from RS image by means of the self-iterative algorithm developed by us. Finally, A diagnostic study is made to investigate the relationship between water vapor above infected area of HPAI H5N1 and possibility of HPAI. We find that about 75.5 percent of HPAI outbreak between 0.5-2.0 g/cm2 of water vapor. Ultimately we would like to provide detailed and precise support information for governments to prevent and control HPAI epidemic. Keywords—-HPAI; GIS; buffer; RS; LST I. INTRODUCTION High pathogenic avian Influenza (HPAI) of H5N1 subtype belongs to type A influenza viruses. All avian (bird) species are susceptible to infection by HPAI virus. However, most HPAI viruses are isolated from wild waterfowls including shorebirds, gulls, geese, terns, etc. and especially wild ducks. Wild ducks carry the HPAI virus without any signs of illness and are considered the major reservoir for HPAI infections in domestic poultry. Live bird markets have historically been an important source of HPAI virus. Co-mingling of birds from different sources, fecal material of crates and vehicles and purchase of birds with unknown HPAI virus status all contribute to the chance that HPAI virus will be carried to the farm and backyard poultry. Surprisingly, there are continuous reports of seropositivity for different avian influenza subtype A viruses including H5N1 and H7N7 [1] in exposed poultry workers. Owing to the high mortality of HPAI epidemic, 125 laboratory- confirmed human cases of HPAI (H5N1) were reported to WHO [2], resulting in 64 deaths from December 30, 2003 to November 9, 2005. In mainland China, only seven laboratory- confirmed human cases of avian influenza were reported as of December 28, 2005, 76 outbreaks occurred among poultry and wild birds in 19 Provinces during Jan 1 of 2004 to Dec. 15 of 2005, and About 144,900 poultry were infected and 129,000 died, a total of 9,050,000 poultry were culled, including chickens, ducks, geese and quails. Although there is no evidence to indicate that human infections with H5N1 virus have resulted in sustained human-to-human transmission, because of concerns about the potential for more widespread infection in the human population worldwide, public health authorities closely monitor outbreaks of human-infected HPAI infection. It has been tested that spread between premises and birds are two most common modes of HPAI transmission. As for the bird-to-bird transmission, contact with infected fecal material is the most important mode, infected wild birds like wide ducks often introduce AIV into domestic flocks raised on range or in open flight pens through fecal contamination. As for the latter mode of transmission, HPAI virus can spread over distance of 3 km by the form of airborne aerosol with secretions and dusts, resulting in infection of neighboring poultry. Meanwhile, there are often virus with the contaminated vehicles and cages from the poultry premises. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technologies are being used increasingly to study the spatial and temporal patterns of infectious diseases [3], which show great potential to serve as: • An effective data capture, mapping and analysis tool for the development of spatial epidemiological diseases • An environment for modeling the spatial distribution of infection accounting for the RS derived parameters and climate measures Do not use the word “essentially” to mean “approximately” or “effectively”. • A focal tool in infection control given their abilities to better define the endemic area and predict precisely the risk of the population exposed to some infections. *Corresponding authors 0-7803-9510-7/06/$20.00 © 2006 IEEE 287