46 Int. J. Sustainable Development, Vol. 16, Nos. 1/2, 2013
Copyright © 2013 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
From ecology to society and back: the (in)convenient
hypothesis syndrome
Víctor H. Marín* and Luisa E. Delgado
Laboratorio de Modelación Ecológica,
Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas,
Facultad de Ciencias,
Universidad de Chile,
Casilla 653 Santiago, Chile
E-mail: vmarin@antar.uchile.cl
E-mail: ldelgado@antar.uchile.cl
*Corresponding author
Abstract: In this article, we analyse the case of the emigration and
death of black necked swans in Southern Chile from a postnormal perspective.
We show that in the presence of radical uncertainty, as it may happen when a
socio-ecological conflict arises due to a sudden, catastrophic, shift in an
ecosystem, one management approach is to consider multiple hypotheses that
in turn should guide inclusive, multi-variable, adaptive management strategies.
However, if influential members of society at the science-policy interface
decide that only one hypothesis is true (a convenient hypothesis), then all
alternative hypotheses become inconvenient; we have called this the
‘(in)convenient hypothesis syndrome’ or (I)CHS. An extensive analysis of the
case study, including social communications before, during and after the main
ecological event, show that the conditions for the syndrome developed
long before the shift in the ecosystem and that they were influenced by
socio-political processes (some of which fall under Merton’s self-fulfilling
prophecy) occurring at many scales (from local to international). Our main
proposal is that the syndrome is to be accepted as an element of the postmodern
science-policy interfaces, originated because scientific results may support
different hypotheses, some of which will have conflicting political
repercussions.
Keywords: environmental conflict; wetland ecosystem; regime shift; social
actors; science-policy interfaces; southern Chile.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Marín, V.H. and
Delgado, L.E. (2013) ‘From ecology to society and back: the (in)convenient
hypothesis syndrome’, Int. J. Sustainable Development, Vol. 16, Nos. 1/2,
pp.46–65.
Biographical notes: Victor H. Marín is a Full Professor of Ecosystem Ecology
at Universidad de Chile and the Head of the Laboratory for Ecological
Modelling. His fields of expertise are ecological modelling, coastal ecosystem
analysis and integrated ecosystem studies.
Luisa E. Delgado holds a PhD in Social Sciences and MSc in Ecology. She is
the Leader of Eco-social Studies in the Laboratory for Ecological Modelling at
Universidad de Chile. Her fields of expertise are social and political ecology
and ecosystem ecology.