1 TITLE PAGE Title The efficacy and duration of protection of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines against nasopharyngeal carriage: a meta-regression model Running title PCV efficacy against carriage over time Authors (First name LAST NAME) Olivier LE POLAIN DE WAROUX 1 , Stefan FLASCHE 1 , David PRIETO-MERINO 2 , David GOLDBLATT 3 , W. John EDMUNDS 1 Affiliations 1. Centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, WCE1 7HT, London, United Kingdom 2. Clinical Trials Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, WCE1 7HT, London, United Kingdom 3. Institute of Child Health, University College London, WC1N 1EH, London, United Kingdom Word count Abstract: 188 words Main text: 3445 References: 50