1 Commercial Real Estate Return Cycles: Do Capital Flows Matter? by Jeffrey Fisher, David C. Ling, and Andy Naranjo* March 2006 Revised December 2006 We thank the Real Estate Research Institute for providing partial funding for this project and Mark Zandi of Economy.com for providing metro-level economic data. We also thank participants at the 2006 AREUEA International meeting in Vancouver for helpful comments and suggestions. * Jeffrey Fisher, Center for Real Estate Studies, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University, 1309 East 10 th Street, Bloomington, IN 47405, Phone: (812) 855-7794, Email: fisher@indiana.edu ; David C. Ling, Department of Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, Center for Real Estate Studies, Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, P.O. Box 117168, Gainesville, FL 32611-7168, Phone: (352) 273-0313, E-mail: ling@ufl.edu ; Andy Naranjo, Department of Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, P.O. Box 117168, Gainesville, FL 32611-7168, Phone: (352) 392-3781, Email: andy.naranjo@cba.ufl.edu .