Presidents, Parties, and the Business Cycle, 1949-2009 MICHAEL COMISKEY Penn State Fayette LAWRENCE C. MARSH University of Notre Dame Scattered works by political scientists since the 1970s have reported that Democratic presidents have compiled stronger economic records than their Republican counterparts: economic growth has been higher, unemployment lower, and inequality has fallen during Democratic administrations while the opposite outcomes have occurred under Republican presidents. Recently, however, Campbell has vigorously challenged these findings. This article reexamines the data for 1949-2009 using new methods and measures, and confirms the earlier findings for unemploy- ment and real gross domestic product (GDP). A small body of research since the 1970s has reported that Democratic presidents have compiled better economic records than their Republican counterparts in the post–World War II era (Alesina and Rosenthal 1995; Bartels 2008; Hibbs 1977, 1987). Bartels’ 2008 book Unequal Democracy has understandably been the most prominent of these works. In a seeming tour de force in political economy, Bartels finds that under Democratic presidents U.S. gross national product (GNP) and family incomes have grown faster, unemployment has been lower, and economic inequality has fallen, while the opposite and less favorable outcomes have characterized Republican administrations (Chapter 2). If correct, these results pose a conundrum for theories of retrospective voting by rational voters in presidential elections: if the economy has performed better under Democratic presidents, why have Republicans won nine of the 15 U.S. presidential elections since 1952? Bartels’ provocative and disturbing response is that Republicans have fared so well because structural factors and failures by American voters to behave rationally have produced “partisan biases” Michael Comiskey is associate professor of political science at the Penn State Fayette Campus in Uniontown, PA. His research has focused on welfare policy in the advanced democracies, the effects of Reaganomics, and presidential Supreme Court nominations. Lawrence C. Marsh is professor emeritus of economics at the University of Notre Dame. He has published widely and has served as guest editor for the Journal of Econometrics. Presidential Studies Quarterly 42, no. 1 (March) 40 © 2012 Center for the Study of the Presidency