Vol.:(0123456789) 1 3 International Criminology https://doi.org/10.1007/s43576-021-00021-2 Risk Factors for Juvenile Recidivists Versus One‑Time Ofenders in Argentina: Comparisons with Other Countries Mirian S. Orlando 1,3,4  · David P. Farrington 2 Received: 21 January 2021 / Accepted: 1 July 2021 © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 Abstract This article analyses risk factors for criminal recidivism of young ofenders in Argentina, compared with studies in other countries; 65 recidivists are compared with 59 one-time ofenders. Efect sizes were calculated for 24 risk factors for recidi- vism. Seven groups of risk factors were compared: (a) demographic information, (b) ofence history, (c) family factors, (d) educational factors, (e) substance use history, (f) social factors, and (g) community and societal infuences. Large efects on recidivism for all risk factors were found in the present study, in comparison with other countries. These fndings are explained within the socio-cultural context of Argentina. Forward stepwise logistic regression analyses were carried out in order to investigate independent predictors, showing that age at frst contact with the law, low school achievement, poor school attendance, substance abuse, delinquent peers and community disorganization were the most important independent predictors of juvenile recidivism in the present study. Criminal history and delinquent peers were also important predictors in other reviews of the predictors of reofending. Keywords Recidivism · Predictors · Young ofenders · Argentina Introduction Investigating developmental processes infuencing juvenile ofending in diferent cultures, and identifying the most important risk factors for recidivism, supplies relevant infor- mation for advancing knowledge in criminology (Loeber & Le Blanc, 1990). There are two major topics on which the developmental criminology is focussed, namely the relation- ship between crime and age and the predictors that explain criminal ofending (for reviews, see Basto-Pereira & Far- rington, 2019). In relation to crime and age, most developmental crimi- nologists distinguish between two types of development of criminal behaviour in young people: sporadic and persistent (Farrington, 2003; Jollife et al., 2017; Moftt, 1993; Rutter et al., 1998). The sporadic type is related to experimenta- tion with adolescent roles, might be powerfully infuenced by situational factors (Moftt, 1993), and can be prevented by simple interventions aimed at reducing opportunities to commit crimes (Rutter et al., 1998). These authors suggest that this adolescent trend disappears with age. Conversely, the persistent manifestation of juvenile delinquency is asso- ciated with the presence of multiple risk factors and involves persistent criminal behaviour. Indeed, there is consensus among studies that the younger the age that young people become involved in criminal behaviour, the greater their probability of recidivism (Farrington et al., 1990a; Moftt, 1993). Regarding the predictors of criminal ofending, one of the most intriguing questions is why certain people who begin to commit crimes during adolescence do not reofend, whereas others persist in continuing to ofend, building a criminal career. To address this issue, most developmental criminologists have conducted valuable longitudinal stud- ies showing relationships between individual, family and * Mirian S. Orlando mirisuorlando102000@gmail.com David P. Farrington dpf1@cam.ac.uk 1 National Supreme Court of Argentina, Buenos Aires, Argentina 2 Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK 3 Talcahuano 550, C1013AAL Buenos Aires, Argentina 4 Santa Fe Avenue 3401, 14 D, C1425BGJ Buenos Aires, Argentina