Influence of reference points in ex post evaluations of rail infrastructure projects Nils O.E. Olsson a,n , Hans Petter Krane b , Asbjørn Rolstad ˚ as b , Mads Veiseth c a Department of Transport and Civil Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Høgskoleringen 7a, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway b Department of Production and Quality Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Norway c SINTEF Technology and Society, Productivity and Project Management, Norway article info Available online 9 February 2010 Keywords: Ex post project analysis Project evaluation Railways abstract The paper study the effect of different reference points in time regarding the ‘before’ and ‘after’ situation and how this may influence the ex post evaluation. Four Norwegian railway projects are analysed ex post. We have found that the choice of reference points that are chosen to represent the situation before and after a project, respectively, will often have a major impact on the result of an evaluation. In fact, the studied projects can be presented as either successes or failures, depending on the choice of reference years. The parameters used in this comparison are punctuality, frequency, travel time, and number of travellers. Four projects have been studied. Four parameters for each project generate a total of 16 indicators. By selecting certain years as reference years, 11 of the 16 indicators can be presented as either an increase or decrease. Stakeholders with a biased agenda towards certain projects can actually pick reference years to present the outcome of projects in a way that that fit their agenda. It is recommended that more than one measurement approach is applied in ex post evaluations. & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. On evaluation of projects When a large infrastructure project has been brought to an, questions are frequently raised regarding the effect. Hence, there is a need for adequate measurements of how useful the results of the project are. In particular, there is a need for a well-based choice of indicators showing status before and after the project. The objective of this paper is to show the influence of timing and the selection of different reference points in time related to project evaluations. These issues have not been key issues in the existing project evaluation literature and practice. Accordingly, we will focus on two aspects of timing:  How does the outcome of an ex post evaluation depend on the choice of reference points for ‘before’ and ‘after’ situations?  To what extent can projects be presented as either successes or failures, depending on the choice of reference years? The paper studies the effect of different reference points in time regarding the ‘before’ and ‘after’ situation and how this may influence the ex post evaluation. The study is limited to rail infrastructure projects. First, an introduction to the broader field of evaluations is given. Some aspects regarding the timing of measurements are then discussed. After a discussion of the methods applied, the results for the four projects are presented and discussed. Finally, some conclusions are drawn and some recommendations for further work are made. 1.1. Types of evaluations By definition, ex post means after the fact, as opposed to ex ante, meaning beforehand. In relation to projects, ex post evaluation means an assessment of the project after it has been completed, while ex ante evaluations are analyses and estimations made in advance of project start-up. In this context, an evaluation is defined as a ‘systematic and objective assessment of an ongoing or completed project, programme or policy, its design, imple- mentation and results’ (OECD, 2002). We can distinguish between different approaches in ex post project evaluations: (1) Socio-economic evaluations—for ex post evaluations these may usually be regarded as ex post recalculations of ex ante cost–benefit analyses. (2) Business value evaluations of a project to one or more of the participants. Such evaluations will therefore mostly be based on the principles of corporate finance. ARTICLE IN PRESS Contents lists available at ScienceDirect journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tranpol Transport Policy 0967-070X/$ - see front matter & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2010.01.008 n Corresponding author. Mobile: + 47 9771 3628; Fax: + 47 73597021. E-mail address: nils.olsson@ntnu.no (N.O. Olsson). Transport Policy 17 (2010) 251–258