Agricultural Land-Use Change in Prairie Canada: Implications for Wetland and Waterfowl Habitat Conservation Benjamin S. Rashford, 1 Christopher T. Bastian 2 and Jeffrey G. Cole 3 1 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wyoming, Department 3354, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071 (corresponding author: phone: 307-766-6474; fax: 307-766-5544; e-mail: brashfor@uwyo.edu). 2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wyoming, Department 3354, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071 (phone: 307-766-4377; fax: 307-766-5544; e-mail: bastian@uwyo.edu). 3 Research Assistant, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wyoming, Department 3354, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071 (phone: 307-359-2915; fax: 307-766-5544; e-mail: jeffreygenecole@hotmail.com). Wetlands and waterfowl in the prairie pothole region (PPR) of North America are inextricably linked to agriculture. Government and private agencies must therefore understand agricultural land-use change to implement effective conservation. We develop a land-use model to predict the proportionof land in eight agricultural uses in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. We then use the model to simulate future land use to better understand the potential impacts of agricultural land-use change on wetland and waterfowl habitat. We also simulate acreage-based subsidy programs to investigate their potential effectiveness as conservation payment programs. Last, we compare predicted subsidy impacts across space with waterfowl densities to highlight the potential for spatial targeting to increase conserva- tion cost-effectiveness. Our results indicate that agricultural expansion and intensification are likely to continue, with a predicted increase of over 10 million acres of intensive spring crops. Predicted conversion of pasture land (which contains the most productive wetlands and waterfowl habitat) is heterogeneous across Canada’s pothole region, suggesting the potential for spatially targeted con- servation programs. Simulations of alternative conservation targeting strategies indicate that limited conservation dollars should be targeted toward high-quality habitat that is at relatively low risk of converting. Les milieux humides et la sauvagine dans la r´ egion des cuvettes des Prairies d’Am´ erique du Nord sont inextricablement li´ es ` a l’agriculture. Les organismes gouvernementaux et priv´ es doivent comprendre les changements dans l’utilisation des terres agricoles afin de mettre en place des mesures de conser- vation efficaces. Nous avons ´ elabor´ e un mod` ele d’utilisation des terres pour pr´ edire la proportion de terres qui seront affect´ ees ` a huit usages agricoles en Alberta, au Manitoba et en Saskatchewan. Nous avons ensuite utilis´ e le mod` ele pour simuler l’utilisation future des terres afin de mieux comprendre les r´ epercussions ´ eventuelles des changements dans l’utilisation des terres agricoles sur les milieux humides et l’habitat de la sauvagine. Nous avons ´ egalement simul´ e des programmes de subvention ´ etablis en fonction des superficies pour ´ evaluer leur efficacit´ e potentielle en tant que programmes de paiements pour encourager la conservation. Nous avons finalement compar´ e les r´ epercussions pr´ evues des subventions dans toutes les r´ egions avec la densit´ e de sauvagine pour montrer le potentiel du ciblage spatial comme moyen d’accroˆ ıtre le rapport coˆ ut-efficacit´ e de la conservation. D’apr` es nos r´ esultats, l’expansion et l’intensification de l’agriculture risquent de se poursuivre avec une augmentation pr´ evue Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 59 (2011) 185–205 DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01212.x 185