Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling Patrícia Fortes a, ⁎, António Alvarenga b,1 , Júlia Seixas a , Sofia Rodrigues c a CENSE – Centre for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2829–516 Caparica, Portugal b Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, Av. Almirante Gago Coutinho 30, 1049-066 Lisbon, Portugal and CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal c Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, Av. Almirante Gago Coutinho 30, 1049-066 Lisbon, Portugal article info abstract Article history: Received 29 May 2013 Received in revised form 6 January 2014 Accepted 9 February 2014 Available online xxxx The development of scenarios to explore energy and low carbon futures has been widely applied. Although some studies combine qualitative scenarios with quantitative outcomes from modeling exercises, the two approaches have been extensively and separately used. Many energy scenarios are sustained only by the results of the models, which allow great technological details but neglect the interaction with social and economic factors. Using Portugal as a case study, this paper presents a framework to link socio-economic storylines, sustained by national stakeholders' workshops, with the development of quantitative energy scenarios through 2050, generated by the technology-based TIMES_PT model. The storylines highlight different visions of the country's development, including the energy system. A comparison between the energy profile from the storylines and the energy modeling outcomes was performed to assess the extent of their differences. This analysis revealed generally similar visions, with the exception of the importance of some technologies, which may affect future energy planning. We conclude that a combined method that links socio-economic storylines and energy modeling increases the robustness of energy scenario development because providing a coherent context for modeling assumptions allows better reasoning, which is most valued for the decision-making process. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Storylines Participatory process Quantitative scenario Energy modeling Energy scenario 1. Introduction In a world that is in constant change, forecasting the future can be a Sisyphean task. In this context, scenario analysis has appeared as a means of characterizing the future and its uncertainties through a structured and imaginative process [1]. Scenarios help explore the what, how and/or if in future pathways and allow to understand how different key driving forces might lead to different outcomes. However, scenarios are not predictions or forecasts but rather are a collection of futures that establish the boundaries of uncer- tainty and the limits within plausible futures [2]. Since the sixties, scenario analysis has gained increasing importance in future planning. Back then, scenarios arose as a military planning tool, evolving later into the context of public policy and as a strategic management tool for the business community [3]. With the use of scenarios by the Royal Dutch/ Shell group [4], the approach was diffused to a wider group of audience and became a popular and recommended method to address uncertainty and to improve decision making [5]. Currently, scenario analysis is associated with an extensive variety of users and disciplines, ranging from policymaking, to business planning, to local management, and to global Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2014) xxx–xxx TFS-17949; No of Pages 18 ⁎ Corresponding author at: Centre for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2829–516 Caparica, Portugal. Tel.: +351 21 294 83 97. E-mail addresses: p.fs@fct.unl.pt (P. Fortes), antonio.alvarenga@apambiente.pt (A. Alvarenga), mjs@fct.unl.pt (J. Seixas), sofia.rodrigues@apambiente.pt (S. Rodrigues). 1 Previously Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento e Relações Internacionais, Av. D. Carlos I 126, 1249-073 Lisbon, Portugal. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.006 0040-1625/© 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Technological Forecasting & Social Change Please cite this article as: P. Fortes, et al., Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modeling, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.006