water
Article
Interdecadal Variability in Myanmar Rainfall in the Monsoon
Season (May–October) Using Eigen Methods
Zin Mie Mie Sein
1
, Irfan Ullah
2,
* , Farhan Saleem
3,4
, Xiefei Zhi
2,5,
*, Sidra Syed
6
and Kamran Azam
7
Citation: Mie Sein, Z.M.; Ullah, I.;
Saleem, F.; Zhi, X.; Syed, S.; Azam, K.
Interdecadal Variability in Myanmar
Rainfall in the Monsoon Season
(May–October) Using Eigen Methods.
Water 2021, 13, 729. https://doi.org/
10.3390/w13050729
Academic Editor: Scott Curtis
Received: 26 January 2021
Accepted: 3 March 2021
Published: 7 March 2021
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1
College of International Students, Wuxi University, Wuxi 214105, China; dr.zin28@gmail.com
2
School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,
Nanjing 210044, China
3
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
farhan@mail.iap.ac.cn
4
International Centre for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
5
Weather Online Institute of Meteorological Applications, Wuxi 214000, China
6
Institute of Peace and Conflicts Studies, University of Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan;
sidsyed.92@yahoo.com
7
Department of Management Sciences, University of Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 22780, Pakistan;
kamran.azam@uoh.edu.pk
* Correspondence: irfan.marwat@nuist.edu.cn (I.U.); zhi@nuist.edu.cn (X.Z.)
Abstract: In this study, we investigated the interdecadal variability in monsoon rainfall in the
Myanmar region. The gauge-based gridded rainfall dataset of the Global Precipitation Climatology
Centre (GPCC) and Climatic Research Unit version TS4.0 (CRU TS4.0) were used (1950–2019) to
investigate the interdecadal variability in summer monsoon rainfall using empirical orthogonal
function (EOF), singular value decomposition (SVD), and correlation approaches. The results reveal
relatively negative rainfall anomalies during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, whereas strong positive
rainfall anomalies were identified for the 1970s and 2010s. The dominant spatial variability mode
showed a dipole pattern with a total variance of 47%. The power spectra of the principal component
(PC) from EOF revealed a significant peak during decadal timescales (20–30 years). The Myanmar
summer monsoon rainfall positively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and
negatively correlated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The results reveal that extreme monsoon
rainfall (flood) events occurred during the negative phase of the PDO and below-average rainfall
(drought) occurred during the positive phase of the PDO. The cold phase (warm phase) of AMO
was generally associated with negative (positive) decadal monsoon rainfall. The first SVD mode
indicated the Myanmar rainfall pattern associated with the cold and warm phase of the PDO and
AMO, suggesting that enhanced rainfall for about 53% of the square covariance fraction was related
to heavy rain over the study region except for the central and eastern parts. The second SVD mode
demonstrated warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific (El Niño pattern)
and cold SST in the North Atlantic Ocean, implying a rainfall deficit of about 33% of the square
covariance fraction, which could be associated with dry El Niño conditions (drought). The third
SVD revealed that cold SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (La Niña pattern) caused
enhance rainfall with a 6.7% square covariance fraction related to flood conditions. Thus, the extra-
subtropical phenomena may affect the average summer monsoon trends over Myanmar by enhancing
the cross-equatorial moisture trajectories into the North Atlantic Ocean.
Keywords: summer monsoon rainfall; interdecadal variability; AMO; PDO; Myanmar
1. Introduction
Rainfall variability is among the basic indicators of climate and water cycle changes
in a region [1]. Anomalous changes in rainfall dynamics may cause hydro-meteorological
hazards such as flood, drought, and storms [2,3], thus ultimately resulting in loss of human
Water 2021, 13, 729. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050729 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/water