www.iaset.us editor@iaset.us MODELING AND FORECASTING NOVEL CORONA CASES IN INDIA USING TRUNCATED INFORMATION: A MATHEMATICAL APPROACH Brijesh P. Singh Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi-221005, India ABSTRACT Background: Novel corona virus is declared as pandemic and India is struggling to control this from a massive attack of death and destruction, similar to the other countries like China, Europe, and the United States of America. The first case of novel corona is reported in India on January 30, 2020. Methods: The growth in the initial phase is following exponential. In this study an attempt has been made to model the spread of novel corona infection. For this purpose logistic growth model with minor modification is used and the model is applied on truncated information on novel corona confirmed cases in India. Results: The result is very exiting that till date predicted number of confirmed corona positive cases is very close to observed on. This provides the carrying capacity is about 20 lakh cases and time of point of inflexion is July 15th, 2020 with a maximum number of new cases on a day is about 15000. Also the various lockdowns plays important role to reduce the progression of corona positive cases significantly. Conclusions: India is in the comfortable zone with a lower growth rate than other countries studied. Our mathematical model shows that, the epidemic is likely to stabilize with 20 lakh cases by the end of January, 2021. If several protective measures such as social distancing, lockdown will be taken effectively, then country will be successful to reduce the rate of this pandemic. KEYWORDS: Novel Corona Virus, Growth Rate, Logistic Curve, Lockdown Article History Received: 23 Jun 2020 | Revised: 24 Jun 2020 | Accepted: 03 Jul 2020 INTRODUCTION: BACKGROUND A novel corona virus responsible for epidemic, popularly known as COVID-19 is a new strain that has not been identified previously in humans. WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. [1] The virus that caused the incidence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002, in China; Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012, in Saudi Arabia, and the viruses that cause COVID-19 are genetically related to each other, but the diseases they caused are quite different [2] . These viruses, in general, are a family of viruses that target and affect mammal’s respiratory systems. The SARS corona virus spread to humans via civet cats, while the MERS virus spread via dromedaries. In case of the novel corona virus, typically happens via contact with an infected animal, perhaps the common carriers are bats; initial reports from seafood market in central Wuhan, China. International Journal of Applied Mathematics & Statistical Sciences (IJAMSS) ISSN (P): 2319-3972; ISSN (E): 2319-3980 Vol. 9, Issue 4, Jun–Jul 2020; 13–24 © IASET