ORIGINAL RESEARCH Models for Predicting Non-Renewable Energy Competing with Renewable Source for Sustainable Energy Development: Case of Asia and Oceania Region Muhammad Ikram 1 Received: 14 June 2021 / Accepted: 30 July 2021 Ó Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management 2021 Abstract Accurate energy forecasting is of great signifi- cance to meet the energy demands, clean energy plans and sustainable energy development strategies. Therefore, this study develops the integrated grey framework to forecast the growth trends of renewable and non-renewable energy production and consumption in Asia and Oceania region from 2017 to 2025 by using novel grey forecasting models, namely even grey model, discrete grey model, optimized discrete grey model and non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM). Mean absolute percentage error was employed to measure the performance of grey models. Data were collected from the International Energy Agency from 1980 to 2016. The results reveal that the energy consumption and production from coal as a non-renewable energy source are comparatively higher than any other energy source and depicted an increasing trend until 2025. Renewable, nuclear and other renewable sources of energy production and consumption showed the uprising trend with slow pace. Moreover, the consumptions of petroleum started with 23.07 quadrillion BTU in 1980; however, the production ended at 18.577 quads BTU in 2015. The pro- duction and consumption of petroleum will reach approx- imately 21.0465 and 93.750 quads BTU, respectively, in 2025 and are projected to increase in Asia and Ocean region. All the four grey models showed the excellent performance. NDGM performance was recorded slightly higher. The study is first of its kind to develop the grey integrated forecasting framework to predict the renewable and non-renewable production and consumption in the region of Asia and Oceania. This study provides useful information for policymakers, decision-makers and energy experts in sustainable energy planning, and simultaneously helps to make the environment more sustainable. Keywords Asia and Oceania  Consumption  Grey forecasting models  Non-renewable energy  NDGM  Production  Renewable energy  Sustainable development Introduction With the increasing number of environmental challenges caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from non-re- newable energy sources like fossil fuels lead to high and unpredictable energy costs. It also affects the geopolitical atmosphere which encompasses the production of fossil fuels and renewable energy sources that have risen as a significant part in the global energy mix consumption (D’Adamo et al., 2021a, 2021b; Rehman et al., 2020). As indicated by the International Energy Outlook (US Energy Information Administration, 2017), the renewable energy sources are anticipated to be the largest growing source of world energy. In particular, in the world renewable energy source used for electricity production will increase by 3% on the average every year and the renewable energy con- sumption elevating by 2.6% every year from 2007 to 2035. As per the International Energy Outlook report by (US Energy Information Administration, 2017), the overall renewable energy consumption around the globe has expanded. The growth level in the twenty-first century’s main decade was 4.40%, especially associated with growth levels of 3.18% and 12.89% for hydropower and & Muhammad Ikram i.muhammad@aui.ma 1 School of Business Administration, Al Akhawayn University in Ifrane, Avenue Hassan II, P.O. Box 104, 53000 Ifrane, Morocco 123 Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management https://doi.org/10.1007/s40171-021-00285-7