Research Article
Modelling the Operating Speed in Segments of
Two-Lane Highways from Probe Vehicle Data: A Stochastic
Frontier Approach
António Lobo , Marco Amorim, Carlos Rodrigues, and António Couto
Research Centre for Territory, Transports and Environment, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias,
s/n, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
Correspondence should be addressed to Ant´ onio Lobo; lobo@fe.up.pt
Received 15 November 2017; Revised 5 March 2018; Accepted 13 March 2018; Published 18 April 2018
Academic Editor: Abdelaziz Bensrhair
Copyright © 2018 Ant´ onio Lobo et al. Tis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Most of the existing operating speed statistical models are applicable to individual design elements, particularly horizontal curves
and tangents. A segment approach to operating speed has rarely been followed, with a few exceptions mainly related to the
performance assessment of urban and freeway corridors, or design consistency studies using speed profles built from successive
design elements. Tis study introduces a new model to predict operating speeds in segments of two-lane highways. Te maximum
operating speed is given by a stochastic frontier function of the average daily trafc and road geometrics; the asymmetric disturbance
accounts for the diversity in drivers’ behaviour and vehicle characteristics, allowing estimating any percentile speed. Te model was
calibrated using probe vehicle data from noncongested roads. Te accuracy of the average daily trafc in representing the actual
driving conditions was further validated using simultaneous speed-trafc measurements. Te new model aims to assist practitioners
in the evaluation of design consistency from a macroscopic perspective since the early stages of road planning and design, as well
as to support the defnition of speed limits at new or existing infrastructures.
1. Introduction
Increasing eforts to understand and predict operating speeds
in roadway facilities have been developed across the past
decades, following the tendency of researchers and practi-
tioners to use the operating speed as an instrument to defne
road geometrics and promote design consistency. Te great
majority of the existing models are focused on the purely
geometric efects on driving speeds, exploring the relations
between geometric parameters and the speeds practiced
under free-fow conditions in individual design elements,
especially in horizontal curves or tangents. Such models are
commonly known as spot speed models, of which the Trans-
portation Research Circular E-C151 [1] provides a comprehen-
sive review.
Te operating speed in a road segment, defned as a
continuous sequence of design elements composing a stretch
of road, has been much less studied, despite the relevance that
segment speed estimations based on roadway characteristics
may present to the evaluation of road design and operations.
Te use of segment speed prediction models since the early
stages of road design allows practitioners to verify, for each
design iteration, if the diferences between the selected design
speed and the expected operating speed lie within acceptable
limits. A sensitivity analysis on such diferences could shed
light on the variables most infuencing design consistency,
thus providing an insight into the most efective actions to
control it in the following iterations of the design process,
with the ultimate goal of obtaining a satisfactory fnal solu-
tion. Tis procedure is in line with the suggestions made by
Fitzpatrick et al. [2] regarding the use of alignment indices to
evaluate design consistency from a macroscopic perspective.
Nevertheless, to improve safety performance, Fitzpatrick et
al. [2] advocate that such analysis should be complemented
by a conventional speed profle approach based on the evalua-
tion of speed reductions between successive design elements.
Hindawi
Journal of Advanced Transportation
Volume 2018, Article ID 3540785, 10 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3540785