Contributed Paper Toward a Management Framework for Networks of Protected Areas in the Face of Climate Change DAVID G. HOLE, ∗ † BRIAN HUNTLEY, ∗ †† JULIUS ARINAITWE,‡ STUART H. M. BUTCHART,§ YVONNE C. COLLINGHAM, ∗ LINCOLN D. C. FISHPOOL,§ DEBORAH J. PAIN, ∗∗ ‡‡ AND STEPHEN G. WILLIS ∗ ∗ School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom †Science & Knowledge Division, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Arlington, VI 22202, U.S.A. ‡BirdLife Africa Partnership Secretariat, P.O. Box 3512, 00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya §BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire CB3 0NA, United Kingdom ∗∗ Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, United Kingdom Abstract: Networks of sites of high importance for conservation of biological diversity are a cornerstone of current conservation strategies but are fixed in space and time. As climate change progresses, substantial shifts in species’ ranges may transform the ecological community that can be supported at a given site. Thus, some species in an existing network may not be protected in the future or may be protected only if they can move to sites that in future provide suitable conditions. We developed an approach to determine appropriate climate- change adaptation strategies for individual sites within a network that was based on projections of future changes in the relative proportions of emigrants (species for which a site becomes climatically unsuitable), colonists (species for which a site becomes climatically suitable), and persistent species (species able to remain within a site despite the climatic change). Our approach also identifies key regions where additions to a network could enhance its future effectiveness. Using the sub-Saharan African Important Bird Area (IBA) network as a case study, we found that appropriate conservation strategies for individual sites varied widely across sub-Saharan Africa, and key regions where new sites could help increase network robustness varied in space and time. Although these results highlight the potential difficulties within any planning framework that seeks to address climate-change adaptation needs, they demonstrate that such planning frameworks are necessary, if current conservation strategies are to be adapted effectively, and feasible, if applied judiciously. Keywords: Africa, colonist species, emigrant species, important bird areas, network gaps, priority species, protected areas, site management strategies, species’ adaptation Hacia un Marco de Manejo para Redes de ´ Areas Protegidas ante el Cambio Clim´ atico Resumen: Las redes de sitios de gran importancia para la conservaci´ on de la diversidad biol´ ogica son una piedra angular de las estrategias actuales de conservaci´ on pero est´ an fijas en espacio y tiempo. A medida que el cambio clim´ atico progresa, cambios sustanciales en los rangos de distribuci´ on de las especies pueden transformar la comunidad ecol´ ogica que puede ser soportada en un sitio determinado. Por lo tanto, algunas especies en una red existente pueden no ser protegidas en el futuro o pueden ser protegidas solo si se mueven a sitios que proporcionen condiciones adecuadas en el futuro. Desarrollamos un m´ etodo para determinar las estrategias de adaptaci´ on al cambio clim´ atico para sitios individuales dentro de una red que se bas´ o en las proyecciones de cambios futuros en las proporciones relativas de emigrantes (especies para las que un sitio se vuelve inadecuado clim´ aticamente), colonizadoras (especies para las que un sitio se vuelve adecuado clim´ aticamente) y especies persistentes (especies capaces de permanecer en un sitio no obstante el cambio ††email brian.huntley@durham.ac.uk ‡‡Current address: Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust, Slimbridge, Gloucestershire GL2 7BT, United Kingdom Paper submitted March 5, 2009; revised manuscript accepted September 10, 2010. 305 Conservation Biology, Volume 25, No. 2, 305–315 C 2011 Society for Conservation Biology DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01633.x