Research Article
StudiesonOptimalStrategytoAdoptNuclearPowerPlantsinto
SaudiArabianEnergySystemUsingMESSAGETool
ShadwanM.M.Esmail andJaeHakCheong
Department of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, 1732, Deogyeong-daero, Giheung-gu, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do 17104,
Republic of Korea
CorrespondenceshouldbeaddressedtoJaeHakCheong;jhcheong@khu.ac.kr
Received 14 August 2020; Revised 12 March 2021; Accepted 23 April 2021; Published 3 May 2021
AcademicEditor:GuglielmoLomonaco
Copyright©2021ShadwanM.M.EsmailandJaeHakCheong.isisanopenaccessarticledistributedundertheCreative
CommonsAttributionLicense,whichpermitsunrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedthe
originalworkisproperlycited.
Anoptimallong-termelectricpowerstrategyforSaudiArabiatoadoptnuclearpowerwasevaluatedusingtheMESSAGEtool.
SaudiArabiaispredictedtoexperienceanelectricityshortageby2025withthepresentenergysystem.iselectricityshortage
could be postponed until 2035 by rehabilitating the existing power plants. e MESSAGE model predicts that adopting a
combinationofrenewable(i.e.,solarandwind),advancedtraditionalpower(i.e.,gasturbine,steam,andcombinedcycle),and
nucleartechnologiesisthemostcompetitivefuturestrategytosupply43.7%,41.6%,and3.8%,respectively,ofSaudiArabia’s
electricity needs by 2050. is paper proposes an optimal strategy for adopting nuclear power. e nuclear capacity of three
scenarioswasevaluated:asingleAPR-1400nuclearreactor,asingleSMART-100nuclearreactor,andacombinationofthesetwo
reactors.eresultsofthisstudyindicatethatthehighestnuclearcapacitywasachievedbythecombinationoftheAPR-1400and
SMART-100 reactors followed by the single APR-1400 reactor and then the single SMART-100 reactor. However, the single
G4ECONSnuclearreactorshowsahighercapacitythanthesingleAPR-1400reactorinotherevaluatedscenarios.ecombined
reactorstrategymaybethemostfeasibleoptionifthecapitalcostofafirst-of-a-kindSMART-100reactorisreducedby62.3%.e
cost reductions result from including factors like the time required to build the nuclear power plants in the MESSAGE tool
calculation.Also,CO
2
taxationwillincreasenuclearpower’sfeasibilityintheSaudiArabianenergysystem.However,theshareof
renewableenergyispredictedtobemoreaffectedbythetaxationofCO
2
.Inthisstudy,theproposedapproachcanprovidemore
flexiblestrategicoptionsforcountriesembarkingonnuclearenergy.eseflexiblestrategicoptionscanoptimizetheirnational
energy mix for long-term planning.
1.Introduction
Energy, including electricity, plays a crucial role in the
economic growth and social development of Saudi Arabia.
Although Saudi Arabia has been the world’s largest oil
producer and exporter [1], previous studies predict that
SaudiArabiawillbeanetoilimporterby2030or2038.is
will happen unless appropriate measures for the develop-
ment of sustainable energy systems are immediately un-
dertaken [2‘3]. Currently, Saudi Arabia ranks 11
th
in the
worldinelectricpowerproductionand13
th
intheworldin
electricity consumption [4]. e Saudi Electric Company
wasthe14
th
biggestelectricitycompanyintheworldatthe
endofSeptember2017[5].
In2015,SaudiArabiahadmorethan940generatorunits
in46powerplants(PPs)distributedoverfourgeographical
regions(i.e.,loadareas)[6].However,morePPsareneeded
tomatchitsrapidlyexpandingelectricitydemandrate.is
electricitydemandrateispredictedtoincreaseannuallyby
5%–8%[7–9].Itisreportedthatdesalinationofwatersig-
nificantly affects the energy Equation in the Middle East.
Desalination of water is required more in the Middle East
thaninanyotherpartoftheworld.us,energyandwater
arecloselyintertwinedintheMiddleEast.Inthisregion,any
discussion about the outlook of electricity also becomes a
discussionaboutwater.eMiddleEastusesdesalinationto
narrow the gap between freshwater withdrawals and a
sustainable water supply [10].
Hindawi
Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations
Volume 2021, Article ID 8818479, 26 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/8818479