1 Forestist 2021: XX(XX): 1-12 Content of this journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International Licence. Cite this article as: Sahagún-Sánchez, F. J., Méndez-García, A. J., Huerta-Martínez, F. M., & Espinoza-Guzmán, M. A. (2021). Spatial modeling of fre occurrence probability in a protected area in Western Mexico. Forestist, August 27, 2021. DOI: 10.5152/ forestist.2021.21008. Corresponding Author: Francisco Javier Sahagún-Sánchez e-mail: francisco.sahagun@cucea.udg.mx Received: January 30, 2021 Accepted: May 12, 2021 Available Online Date: August 27, 2021 Original Article Spatial Modeling of Fire Occurrence Probability in a Protected Area in Western Mexico Francisco Javier Sahagún-Sánchez 1 , Abril Joaquina Méndez-García 2 , Francisco Martín Huerta-Martínez 3 , Marco Antonio Espinoza-Guzmán 4 1 Departamento de Políticas Públicas, Universidad de Guadalajara, CUCEA, Guadalajara, Mexico 2 Licenciatura en Gestión y Economía Ambiental, Universidad de Guadalajara, CUCEA, Guadalajara, Mexico 3 Departamento de Ecología, Universidad de Guadalajara, CUCBA, Guadalajara, Mexico 4 Facultad de Biología, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Mexico Abstract Forest fres can generate economic losses, social vulnerability, and environmental damage. Therefore, more knowledge about the causes and efects on the territory is needed. The present study aimed to develop a spatial model to determine the infuence of socio-economic and environmental variables on the probability of fre in a protected area. The study was developed in La Primavera Flora and Fauna Protection Area, located on the periphery of Guadalajara’s Metropolitan Area in western Mexico. We used remote sensing information and feld data of hot spots of fre from 2012 to 2018 to model forest cover's susceptibility to wildfres based on a set of socio-economic and landscape variables in the Dinamica EGO software. We built and evaluated a fre occurrence probability map (AUC = 0.88) and estimated that 20 970.90 ha of forests in the area are prone to wildfres. Population density, communication routes, and agriculture were the variables with the highest weight of evidence. The protected area presents diferent levels of fre occurrence probability due to factors such as urban growth and land-use cover change. The model allows a spatially explicit visualization of the sites most susceptible to fres, enhancing the prevention and management of forest fres in the study area. Keywords: Conservation, management, protected area, urban settlements, weight of evidence, wildfre Introduction The surface area of forest afected by wildfres continues to increase globally, with an estimated level of between 10 and 15 million hectares of forest lost every year (Castillo et al., 2003). These events have a socio-economic impact on public health, human losses, damage to infrastructure, and cause direct economic losses. In addition, it has ecological impacts in terms of air quality, climate, water resources, soil, vegetation, landscape, biodiversity, and the provision of other ecosystem services (González-Mathiesen et al., 2019; La Rosa et al., 2018; Sathaye et al., 2013). Fire is considered a type of disturbance that can occur on diferent temporal and spatial scales (Pickett et al., 1989). Like other forms of disturbance, fre plays an essential role in the dynamics and current confguration, and structure of communities, ecosystems, and the landscape in general (Farfán et al., 2020). Historically, fre has been a part of traditional agricultural management strategies and an efec- tive mechanism for the expansion of the agricultural frontier (Everson & Everson, 2016). Fires can origi- nate from diferent causes (natural and anthropic) that can become a risk situation for ecosystems and people when combined with favorable environmental and meteorological conditions. In recent years, the impact of fres has been documented in the international arena, among which the fres in the USA, Brazil, and Australia stand out for their intensity and the damages caused (Kganyago & Shikwambana, 2020). In the western USA, the fres registered during 2018 caused around 100 human deaths and cost $24 billion in infrastructure. In 2019, the fres in Brazil were related to the expansion of agricultural activi- ties. They caused the loss of a large area of forests that afected biodiversity and the ecosystem services provided by the Amazon and generated a confict with the afected indigenous groups. In the case of Australia, the 2019 fres were considered the worst since 1939 due to the decrease in rainfall and the impact of anthropic activities (Kganyago & Shikwambana, 2020; Lizundia et al., 2020; Whiteside, 2020). DOI: 10.5152/forestist.2021.21008