American-Eurasian Journal of Scientific Research 3 (1): 92-96, 2008 ISSN 1818-6785 © IDOSI Publications, 2008 Corresponding Author: Dr. Charalambos Tsekeris, Department of Psychology, Athens, Greece 92 Social Simulations from a Reflexive Epistemological Standpoint Charalambos Tsekeris, Theodore Tsekeris and Ioannis Katerelos 1 1 2 Centre for Planning and Economic Research, Athens, Greece 1 Department of Psychology, Panteion University, Athens, Greece 2 Abstract: This paper describes the reflexive epistemological background and the computational experience obtained from the laboratory testing of a new social simulation modelling paradigm. Both the reflexive and normative dimensions of this theoretically grounded and practically useful paradigm are critically presented and explained to vividly demonstrate how the dynamic interactions between cognitive and reactive behavioural processes of social agents can possibly lead to unintended, unforeseen and unanticipated macro-social structural outcomes and side-effects. The test experimentations signify the sociological and topological complexity of even simplified networks of social agents. They also verify the undecidable and surprising character of (holistic-emergent) social dynamics and that the future cannot be fully predicted with certainty. Key words: Social simulations Social research Scientific methodology Reflexivity INTRODUCTION order and unity come from “chaotic noise” (Heinz von According to the well-respected Newtonian and just becomes a mere possibility. The remaining parts of Cartesian cosmologies, we live in a harmonic and this paper present the aim and scope of the social deterministic universe governed by absolute (Euclidean) simulation modelling and explain both its reflexive and geometric principles and invariant objective meta-laws. normative dimension. The simulation results of a In this positivistic context, scientific truth is ultimately laboratory experimentation of the new approach are characterized by great and indubitable certainty and illustrated and some concluding remarks are made. detachment, putting an “end to the vagaries of human disputes … by escaping as much as possible from the Aim and scope of the social simulation models: The shackles of ideology, passions and emotions” [1]. principal aim of the social simulation modelling is to In the 20th century, however, this highly static view obtain a better theoretical and empirical understanding of of truth has been actively replaced by a dynamic, multi- complex social and human processes, as well as of our dimensional and changing truth bounded by perspective, own (scientific) meta-theories and hypotheses, rather than time and space. To a large extent, this was due to the to self-confidently and dogmatically make full predictions reflexive sensitization of modern science, from Biology to of the future-at least not beyond a relatively limited the Human Sciences, which gradually begun to self- “predictability horizon”. In particular, no prediction can be consciously and self-critically look at itself and discover decisively made if we do not seriously take into account its own limits and weaknesses, especially since the first this indispensable “predictability horizon”-that is, the formulations of early 20th century Physics (e.g. Einstein’s “short time period during which above-chance prediction General Theory of Relativity, Heisenberg’s Theory of can occur in a chaotic system … Hence, the question of Uncertainty and Prigogine’s Theory of the Dissipative prediction shifts from ‘controlling accurate values’ to Structures). ‘controlling the error propagation of inaccurate In the 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s, both “general values’” [2]. systems theory” and “computer simulation methodology” Complexity, performativity, self-reference, the (Latin simulare, to imitate), which has been closely tied to “observer” (seen as changing that which is observed), the technology of computing, continued in this reflexive, randomness, non-linearity and unpredictability (leading interdisciplinary and boundary-breaking fashion. In a to entropic chaos and generating surprises) in “self-organizing” or “autopoietic” social universe, where “post-modern” science have radically transformed our Foerster), the future cannot be fully predicted anymore; it