POLICY ESSAY IMPRISONMENT AND CRIME More police, less prison, less crime? From peel to popper The case for more scientific policing Peter W. Neyroud Chief Constable and Chief Executive of the National Policing Improvement Agency, UK I n his lecture at the National Institute of Justice in April 2010, Professor Lawrence Sherman (2010) boldly proposed that governments could have their cake and eat it, reducing the spiraling costs of prison places and yet enjoy continuing improvements in the harm caused by crime. The key precondition that he set out was a need to invest in more effective, evidence-based policing. In their article, Durlauf and Nagin (2011, this issue) build toward similar conclusions through examining what the evidence now tells us about deterrence, its relationship with certainty and severity, and its impact on crime outcomes. This essay will set out to look at Durlauf and Nagin’s (2011) arguments and will seek to examine whether their proposal for a radical shift in criminal justice policy is capable of being implemented. The primary focus of the essay will be on the policing end of Durlauf and Nagin’s proposals because this author spent 5 years leading the development of approaches to improving policing in the United Kingdom but also has been involved extensively in the various attempts to reform the criminal justice system in the United Kingdom since the early 1990s. 1 The essay will start with a look at the current context; how fertile is the ground that Durlauf and Nagin are attempting to sow? It then will turn to examine the potential to improve the effectiveness of the police, which is critical to their arguments. It will conclude by looking at the issue of seriousness, a dimension of the challenge of change that they allude to but needs greater attention. Direct correspondence to Peter W. Neyroud, Cambridge Institute for Criminology (e-mail: neyroudp@gmail.com). 1. The author was the Chief Executive of the National Policing Improvement Agency in the United Kingdom, a member of the National Policing Board, National Criminal Justice Board, an independent review member of the Parole Board, and a member of the Sentencing Guidelines Council. DOI:10.1111/j.1745-9133.2010.00682.x C  2011 American Society of Criminology 77 Criminology & Public Policy  Volume 10  Issue 1