Ecological Modelling 244 (2012) 104–116 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Ecological Modelling jo u r n al hom ep age : www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel Individual-based modeling as a decision tool for the conservation of the endangered huemul deer (Hippocamelus bisulcus) in southern Chile Claudia López-Alfaro a,∗ , Cristián F. Estades b , Dennis K. Aldridge c , Robin M.A. Gill d a Laboratorio de Geomática y Ecología del Paisaje, Departamento de Manejo de Recursos Forestales, Universidad de Chile, Av. Santa Rosa 11315, Casilla 9206, Santiago, Chile b Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Manejo de Recursos Forestales, Laboratorio de Ecología de Vida Silvestre, Av. Santa Rosa 11315, Casilla 9206, Santiago, Chile c Corporación Nacional Forestal, Región de Aysén, Av. Ogana 1060, Casilla de correo 412, Coihaique, Chile d Centre for Human and Ecological Sciences, Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham, Surrey GU10 4LH, UK a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 8 October 2011 Received in revised form 23 June 2012 Accepted 30 June 2012 Available online 28 July 2012 Keywords: Individual-based models Spatially explicit models Landscape change Population persistence Huemul Hippocamelus bisulcus a b s t r a c t One of the greatest challenges for conservation biology is providing solutions for endangered species in modern landscapes, usually with deficient biological information on how species respond to landscape disturbances. These limitations are severe in developing countries where the lack of resources restricts the potential for basic ecological research. One way in which this limitation has been mitigated is with the use of individual-based spatially explicit population models (SEPMs). We developed a SEPM for the endangered huemul deer (Hippocamelus bisulcus) of southern Chile. The goal was to project the popu- lation trajectories under three different development scenarios (present conditions, increased livestock density and hydroelectric dams) in southern Chile, identifying key demographic variables associated to landscape features. The model simulated weekly movements, age and general status of all individuals in the population and the landscape in which they lived during a 40-year period. Age-dependent and landscape-related mortality probabilities were applied. Four population sizes and three spatial aggrega- tion patterns were used as initial conditions. Although the model was very sensitive to age-dependent mortality rate, individual landscape perception scale and initial population size and location, the general trend was that of a positive population growth. Livestock and dam scenarios had minimal impacts on population dynamics. Most simulations starting with 100 individuals resulted in extinctions and disag- gregated initial location of individuals produced slow rates of population growth, suggesting the existence of a population viability threshold. Our results suggest that the huemul population in the Aysén region has the potential to recover only if limiting factors are kept under control and they highlight the urgency of conducting studies aimed at estimating total population size and distribution together with survival data to improve the conservation plans for this endangered species. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction One of the greatest challenges for conservation biology is to pro- vide tools to manage endangered species in modern landscapes, and in particular to reveal, often with insufficient biological data, how species might respond to landscape disturbances (Kramer- Schadt et al., 2004; Schadt et al., 2002a; Lima and Zollner, 1996; Taylor et al., 1993). These limitations are particularly severe in developing countries where the lack of resources restricts the Abbreviations: CONAF, Corporación Nacional Forestal; CONAMA, Comisión Nacional del Medio Ambiente; INDAP, Instituto de Desarrollo Agropecuario; RNLC, Reserva Nacional Lago Cochrane. ∗ Corresponding author. Present address: Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 GSB, Edmonton, T6G 2H1 Canada. Fax: +1 780 4924323. E-mail addresses: clau.mago@gmail.com, lopez@ualberta.ca (C. López-Alfaro), cestades@uchile.cl (C.F. Estades), aldridge@conaf.cl (D.K. Aldridge), robin.gill@forestry.gsi.gov.uk (R.M.A. Gill). potential for even basic ecological research. Landscape changes can alter population dynamics by changing the availability and spa- tial distribution of resources important to the individual survivor (Wiens et al., 1993; Morrison et al., 2006; Fahrig and Merriam, 1994), changing species interactions (Ewers and Didham, 2006) or individual dispersal patterns (Sutherland, 1996; With and King, 1999). Individual-based spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) have been increasingly useful in helping researchers to under- stand how landscape structure influences individual dispersal and interactions between habitat configuration and population demog- raphy (Kramer-Schadt et al., 2004; Melbourne et al., 2004; Wiegand et al., 1999; Wiegand and Moloney, 2004). Individual-based mod- els describe population dynamics by simulating the behavior of each individual in a population (Wiens et al., 1993), integrating life- history information and behavioral rules on dispersal and habitat selection (Wiegand et al., 1999). This allows population properties to arise as a consequence of the interactions of the individuals with 0304-3800/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.032