Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Vol. 16, No. 2, November 2019, pp. 1050~1058
ISSN: 2502-4752, DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v16.i2.pp1050-1058 1050
Journal homepage: http://iaescore.com/journals/index.php/ijeecs
Analytics of stock market prices based on machine learning
algorithms
Puteri Hasya Damia Abd Samad
1
, Sofianita Mutalib
2
, Shuzlina Abdul-Rahman
3
Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia
Article Info ABSTRACT
Article history:
Received Jan 29, 2019
Revised Mar 2, 2019
Accepted May 13, 2019
This study focuses on the use of machine learning algorithms to analyse
financial news on stock market prices. Stock market prediction is a
challenging task because the market is known to be very volatile and
dynamic. Investors face these kinds of problems as they do not properly
understand which stock product to subscribe or when to sell the product with
an optimum profit. Analyzing the information individually or manually is a
tedious task as many aspects have to be considered. Five different companies
from Bursa Malaysia namely CIMB, Sime Darby, Axiata, Maybank and
Petronas were chosen in this study. Two sets of experiments were performed
based on different data types. The first experiment employs textual data
involving 6368 articles, extracted from financial news that have been
classified into positive or negative using Support Vector Machine (SVM)
algorithm. Bags of words and bags of combination words through Apriori
algorithm are extracted as the features for the first experiment. The second
experiment employs the numeric data type extracted from historical data
involving 5321 records to predict whether the stock price is going up
(positive) or down (negative) using Random Forest algorithm. The Rain
Forest algorithm gives better accuracy in comparison with SVM algorithm
with 99% and 68% accuracy respectively. The results demonstrate the
complexities of the textual-based data and demand better feature
extraction technique.
Keywords:
Bursa Malaysia
Frequent itemset
Machine learning
Stock market prices prediction
Text mining
Copyright © 2019 Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science.
All rights reserved.
Corresponding Author:
Sofianita Mutalib,
Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences,
Universiti Teknologi MARA,
40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia.
Email: sofi@tmsk.uitm.edu.my
1. INTRODUCTION
Stock market investors normally have to make difficult decisions based on the assumptions that the
presumed price is different from the current stock market price due to its intrinsic value [1-2]. The intrinsic
value of the stock is considered as constant within a short period of time because opinions or decisions that
have been made by investors are not expected to change drastically in a short period of time. Investors make
comparisons between the perceived intrinsic value and its market value, and later investors make decisions
on buying or selling or holding based on the current situation [2-3]. Billions of money are traded or
exchanged every day whereby the investors are hoping that they will make profit instead of losses. Behavior
of investors can affect stock prices, and investors influence stock prices by using information that are
available in the public domain to predict the results of how the market will react [4-5]. This makes stock
market analytics an extremely interesting area and its development is worthwhile for the investors. Market
prediction that is effective might help the investors in terms of trading advice or as a key component for
stockbrokers. Furthermore, prediction models can help investors in providing helpful information like market