The Future Interaction of Science and Innovation Policy for Climate Change and National Security Elizabeth L. Malone, Andrew J. Cowell, Roderick M. Riensche Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PO Box 999 Richland, WA 99352 USA Abstract - Recent efforts to characterize the interactions among climate change and national security issues raise challenges of relating disparate bodies of scientific (both physical and social) knowledge as well as determining the role of innovation in meeting these challenges. Technological innovation has been called for to combat climate change, increase food production, and discover new ways of generating energy, and proposals for increased investments in R&D and technology deployment are to be met with everywhere. However, such policy decisions in one domain have impacts in other domains—often unexpected, often negative, but often capable of being addressed in planning stages. This technological tool allows its users to embody the knowledge of different domains, to keep that knowledge up to date, and to define relationships, via both a model and an analytic game, such that policy makers can foresee problems and plan to forestall or mitigate them. Capturing and dynamically updating knowledge is the accomplishment of the Knowledge Encapsulation Framework. A systems dynamic model, created in STELLA ® , simulates the relationships among different domains, so that relevant knowledge is applied to a seemingly independent issue. An analytic game provides a method to use that knowledge as it might be used in real-world settings. I. BACKGROUND Globalization collapses the boundaries between political, economic, and socio-cultural domains. No longer is it possible to specialize in one of these domains without accounting for the others. Researchers who wish to contribute to human well- being and address real-world issues of science and innovation must increasingly cross-disciplinary boundaries and tread in interdisciplinary territory. And the complexity of global systems (whether truly increasing or simply increasingly recognized) demands new computerized tools to represent important factors of these real-world issues. The real-world issues themselves include active debates about the development – and the desirability – of new technologies. Recent efforts to characterize the interactions among climate change and national security issues raise challenges of relating disparate bodies of scientific (both physical and social) knowledge as well as determining the role of innovation in meeting these challenges. As discussion about climate change (especially in the United States) have shifted from “Is it real?” to “What to do?,” debates have focused on technological approaches to generating emissions-free energy and preserving/extending natural carbon sinks. But pilot- or commercial-scale implementations of single technologies often reveal issues in other domains. For instance, expansion of wind energy is championed by environmental groups as non-emitting and environmentally benign, but concerns about bird kills, aesthetic issues, and intermittency may limit such expansion. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), in which carbon dioxide is removed from emissions streams and sequestered in deep geologic or ocean sites, promises continued use of cheap fossil fuels, but these technologies also increase the cost of energy and are raising safety concerns. Technological innovation has been called for to combat climate change, increase food production, and discover new ways of generating energy, and proposals for increased investments in R&D and technology deployment are to be met with everywhere. However, such policy decisions in one domain have impacts in other domains—often unexpected, often negative, but often capable of being addressed in planning stages. Under the Technosocial Predictive Analytics Initiative at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, linked research teams are providing a new and significant capability for government analysts and policymakers to make better policy decisions about such innovation. The teams have developed a case study focusing on India (with plans to include Pakistan and Bangladesh) in the areas of food, energy, and national security. The case study includes three aspects, visualized in Fig. 1: • Knowledge Encapsulation Framework (KEF), a semantic wiki-based collaborative environment that holds traditional documents and continually updated social media • STELLA ® model that draws from three existing models in the areas of food and energy security, and social resilience to climate change • An analytic game based on issues that the model addresses. Information seekers, users of the model and players of the game will see how different domains relate to each other and where innovation is needed. The next sections of this paper discuss each element, then provide a use case involving decisions about expanding the production of biofuels while safeguarding food security.