Chapter 4
Does Economic Policy Uncertainty
Matter for Stock Market Volatility?
Abhisek Mishra and Byomakesh Debata
Abstract This study examines the dynamic relationship between economic policy
uncertainty (EPU) and stock market volatility in a pure order-driven emerging
stock market. Considering the non-linear EPU-volatility relationship, this study uses
GARCH family of models to capture the impact of policy uncertainty on stock market
volatility. Empirical estimates reveal that economic policy uncertainty is an essential
determinant of stock market volatility, and higher EPU leads to significant increase in
volatility. We believe, a thorough understanding the EPU-Volatility relationship can
be beneficial for investors to better predict the behaviour of stock market volatility.
Keywords Economic policy uncertainty · GARCH models · Stock market
volatility
JEL Code E44 · G12 · G14
4.1 Introduction
Stock market volatility has been a pertinent subject of interest for investors,
policymakers, academic researchers and practitioners due to its implications for
asset pricing, hedging, risk management, portfolio diversification, predicting future
prospects of market and maintaining financial market stability (Paye, 2012; Ropach
& Zhou, 2013; Antonakakis, Balcilar, Gupta, & Kyei, 2016). In the post-global
financial crisis, the Economic Policy Uncertainity (EPU) has received considerable
attention in finance literature. Existing studies have found that EPU has potential
negative effects on various economic activities including economic growth, infla-
tion, investment and employment (Rodrik, 1991; Bloom, Bond, & Reenen, 2007;
A. Mishra (B )
Nabakrushna Choudhury Centre for Development Studies, Bhubaneswar, India
e-mail: abhisek.mishra@hotmail.com
B. Debata
Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani Campus, Vidya Vihar, Rajasthan, India
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
A. K. Mishra et al. (eds.), The Financial Landscape of Emerging Economies,
Accounting, Finance, Sustainability, Governance & Fraud: Theory and Application,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60008-2_4
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