RENEWA BLE ENERGY OPTIONS: WHAT COULD DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPECT FROM THEM? JYOTI K. PARIKH Energy Division, Planning Commission, New Delhi, 1 IooOl, India Abstract-h order to make a realistic assessment of the energy alternatives for the developing world. the present conditions of the developing region, consisting of Africa and Asia (excluding South Africa, Japan and China), are studied first. Highlights include: low commercial energy consumption (0.2 kW/cap). heavy dependence on oil and noncommercial energy, and especially poor conditions of the rural energy supply. Since fossil fuels need to be conserved and nuclear energy is not an option for many of the developing countries, what renewable options could bring is evaluated in detail. Socio-techno- economic parameters for developing and employing renewable energy sources are identified for biogas, wood plantation, solar. and hydropower. The study concludes that the developing countries could obtain 35% of the energy in 2030 with the low-demand scenario of 0.9 kW/cup. However, with the high-demand scenario of 1.4 kW/cap, active policies in nuclear energy and fossil fuels as well would be required. 1. INTRODUCTION An analysis of energy alternatives for the developing world requires an assessment of present conditions and the availability of resources for future energy alternatives, as well as the identification of socio-techno-economic parameters which have to be satisfied for the successful implementation of desirable energy alternatives. The characteristics of the present energy system of the developing region’ (Africa and South Asia excluding South Africa, Japan and China), with low and medium per capita income, are as follows:’ l Per capita commercial energy consumption is as zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJ low as 0.2 kwlcap. 0 Noncommercial energy (wood and waste) provides 55% of total primary energy consumption. 0 The share of oil in commercial energy supply is as high as 70%. 0 Rural areas, where 70% of the population live, have little or no access to electricity and their consumption is near subsistence level and not adequate for economically productive activities. Thus, the energy alternatives for this developing region are somewhat limited by the present conditions. The rise in oil price, however, has increased the estimates of fossil fuel resources in various countries. Although these resources are not large enough to rely upon for a significant time period, they do provide a breathing space for developing a long-term energy strategy. Unfortunately, the nuclear option is not economical for some areas where the electricity demand is not large enough. Therefore, renewable energy alterna- tives need to be carefully considered to see whether the transition could be made from the energy systems based on non-renewable sources to one which mainly relies on energy income generated by employing natural resources. In such planning, however, due consideration must be given to availability of land and capital, the changes in life-styles, and other parameters, such as climate, soil, produc- tivity of land, and availability of low-wage labor. Such detailed analysis can throw