• FINANSE I PRAWO FINANSOWE •
159
• Journal of Finance and Financial Law •
Numer specjalny/Special Issue 2021: 159–184
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE TRANSACTION SYSTEMS
ON THE DAX INDEX
Marek Trembiński, M.Sc. in Economics
Warsaw School of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Securities Broker
Joanna Stawska, Assistant Professor, Ph.D.
Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6863-1210
Abstract
The purpose of the article/hypothesis: The aim of this article is to examine the effectiveness of trading systems
built on the basis of technical analysis tools in 2015–2020 on the DAX stock exchange index. Efficiency is
understood as generating positive rates of return, taking into account the risk incurred by the investor, as well
as achieving better results than passive strategies. Presenting empirical evidence implying the value of technical
analysis is a difficult task not only because of a huge number of instruments used on a daily basis, but also due
to their almost unlimited possibility to modify parameters and often subjective evaluation.
Methodology: The effectiveness of technical analysis tools was tested using selected investment strategies
based on oscillators and indicators following the trend. All transactions were carried out on the Meta Trader 4
platform. The analyzed strategies were comprehensively assessed using the portfolio management quality
measures, such as the Sharpe measure or the MAR ratio (Managed Account Ratio).
Results of the research: The test results confirmed that the application of described investment strategies
contributes to the achievement of effective results and, above all, protects the portfolio against a significant
loss in the period of strong turmoil on the stock exchange. During the research period, only two strategies
(Ichimoku and ETF- Exchange traded fund) would produce negative returns at the worst possible end of
the investment. At the best moment, however, the „passive” investment achieved the lowest result. Looking
at the final balance at the end of 2019, as many as four systems based on technical analysis were more effective
than the „buy and hold” strategy, and at the end of the first quarter of 2020 – all of them. When analyzing the
management quality measures, it turned out that taking into account the 21 quarters, the passive strategy had
the lowest MAR index. The Sharpe’s measure is also relatively weak compared to the four leading strategies.
Keywords: technical analysis, trading systems, DAX index, stock exchange, investment strategies.
JEL Class: G11, G14, G15, O24.
https://doi.org/10.18778/2391-6478.S.2021.09
© by the author, licensee Łódź University – Łódź University Press, Łódź, Poland. This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0