Learning from the application of nuclear probabilistic safety assessment to the chemical industry Cyril Charvet a, * , Jean-Luc Chambon a , François Corenwinder a , Jérôme Taveau b a Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Reactor Safety Division, 31 avenue de la Division Leclerc, 92 260 Fontenay aux Roses Cedex, France b Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Plants, Laboratories, Transports and Waste Safety Division, 31 avenue de la Division Leclerc, 92 260 Fontenay aux Roses Cedex, France article info Article history: Received 8 June 2010 Accepted 21 September 2010 Keywords: Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) Risk analysis Risk assessment Chemical industry abstract This paper introduces the new approach of risk analysis established by the French Ministry of the Environment and develops the benefits of applying nuclear probabilistic safety assessment approaches to the chemical industry. In the aftermath of the AZF disaster in Toulouse on 21 September 2001, a new law was proposed by the French government asking for the investigation of all representative scenarios and the assessment of the probability of the resulting dangerous phenomena to demonstrate an acceptable level of safety. There- fore, any accident is investigated from a global point of view, according to its gravity and its probability. In 2000, the French Ministry of the Environment asked the Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN), and in particular its Systems and Risk Protection Assessment (SESPRI) and its Industrial Risks, Fire and Containment Assessment and Study (SERIC) departments, to conduct a Proba- bilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) study of an LPG distribution facility, specially for the BLEVE scenario. This study has showed the power of PSA for defining and prioritizing actions to be carried out to improve safety of facilities; however, it requires credible data for reliability and failure of the equipment, not available in generic failure databases. Since 2007, IRSN has taken several initiatives in collaboration with operators in order to provide more precise and representative failure rates for main safety equipment, ready to use in future PSA relative to LPG plants. Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction At 10:15 am on 21 September 2001, a huge explosion occurred at the AZF (Azote de France) fertiliser factory of Grande Paroisse firm, located about 3 km outside the city of Toulouse in France (Figs. 1e3). 31 people were killed and 3000 were injured (ARIA, 2007; Barthélémy et al., 2001). The explosion shattered shops, car windows, and tore doors from their hinges in the city centre. In the aftermath of this disaster, the approaches of land-use planning and risk analysis in safety reports were entirely revised. 2. The new approach of risk analysis in safety reports Before 2003, only worst-case scenarios were examined without quantified probability assessment. A new law was adopted on 30 July 2003 (French Parliament, 2003), asking for the investigation of all representative scenarios, and the assessment of the probability of the resulting dangerous phenomena, to demonstrate an acceptable level of safety. So any accident is now examined from a global perspective, according to its gravity and its probability (French Ministry of the Environment, 2005a, 2005b, 2005c, 2005d, 2005e). One of the targets of this new statutory approach was to develop a probabilistic approach in order to better appreciate the risks as a complement of the deterministic approach used so far. Then the French Ministry of the Environment issued guidelines to implement the new approach to risk analysis in a document entitled “General Principles for the Elaboration of Safety Reports” (French Ministry of the Environment, 2006). This document gives all the steps to follow in order to carry out a safety report for SEVESO-type facilities. One new and very important topic devel- oped in this guide is the assessment of the probability of dangerous phenomena. Probability is the frequency with which an incident may occur during the lifetime of a facility. * Corresponding author. E-mail address: cyril.charvet@irsn.fr (C. Charvet). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jlp 0950-4230/$ e see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2010.09.007 Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 24 (2011) 242e248