853 ©฀2009฀American฀Society฀of฀Criminology Criminology฀&฀Public฀Policy฀•฀Volume฀8฀•฀Issue฀4 POLICY ESSAY D E T E R R E N C E A N D E X E C U T I O N S Don’t฀scrap฀the฀death฀penalty Paul H. Rubin Emory University I฀ have฀been฀asked฀to฀comment฀on฀the฀policy฀implications฀of฀“Does฀the฀death฀penalty฀save฀ lives?฀New฀evidence฀from฀state฀panel฀data,฀1977฀To฀2006,”฀(Kovandzic,฀Vieraitis,฀and฀ Boots,฀2009,฀this฀issue).฀The฀article฀does฀not฀hesitate฀to฀draw฀its฀own฀policy฀conclusions.฀ Kovandzic฀et฀al.฀conclude฀that฀because฀no฀evidence฀is฀provided฀for฀a฀deterrent฀effect,฀“policy฀ makers฀should฀refrain฀from฀justifying฀its฀use฀by฀claiming฀that฀it฀is฀a฀deterrent฀to฀homicide฀and฀ consider฀less฀costly,฀more฀effective฀ways฀of฀addressing฀crime.”฀I฀will฀be฀equally฀blunt;฀I฀do฀not฀ think฀that฀their฀evidence฀is฀suffciently฀persuasive฀to฀draw฀the฀conclusions฀they฀do,฀and฀I฀am฀ not฀in฀favor฀of฀abolishing฀the฀death฀penalty.฀ I฀will฀consider฀two฀questions฀about฀the฀death฀penalty.฀First,฀as฀execution฀is฀currently฀applied฀ in฀the฀United฀States,฀does฀it฀actually฀serve฀as฀a฀deterrent?฀This฀question฀will฀require฀an฀exami- nation฀of฀some฀assertions฀in฀the฀Kovandzic฀et฀al.฀(2009)฀article฀about฀the฀nature฀of฀criminals฀ as฀well฀as฀about฀the฀predictions฀of฀economic฀theory.฀Second,฀if฀the฀death฀penalty฀is฀currently฀a฀ deterrent,฀is฀it฀powerful฀enough฀so฀that฀existing฀statistical฀techniques฀can฀measure฀the฀deterrent฀ effect?฀This฀question฀will฀entail฀an฀examination฀of฀the฀statistical฀analysis฀of฀the฀article.฀ Is Capital Punishment a Deterrent Theory? In฀regard฀to฀the฀frst฀question,฀at฀some฀level฀of฀certainty฀and฀speed,฀capital฀punishment฀could฀ serve฀as฀a฀deterrent.฀Gordon฀Tullock฀has฀proposed฀the฀following฀thought฀experiment:฀Think฀of฀ a฀criminal฀pointing฀a฀gun฀at฀a฀potential฀victim฀with฀a฀policeman฀standing฀behind฀the฀criminal.฀ The฀policeman฀says,฀“You฀can฀shoot฀him,฀but฀if฀you฀do฀then฀I฀will฀shoot฀you.”฀In฀this฀circum- stance,฀the฀threat฀of฀death฀certainly฀would฀deter฀most฀or฀all฀potential฀murderers.฀We฀then฀can฀ think฀of฀actual฀systems฀as฀reducing฀the฀probability฀and฀speed฀of฀execution.฀With฀each฀reduction,฀ the฀level฀of฀deterrence฀also฀is฀reduced฀because฀fewer฀potential฀murderers฀will฀be฀deterred฀as฀the฀ probability฀and฀speed฀of฀execution฀is฀reduced.฀ Thanks to Hashem Dezhbakhsh, Joanna shepherd, and Grifn edwards for helpful comments. Direct correspondence to Paul H. rubin, Department of economics, emory university, Atlanta, CA 30322 (e-mail: prubin@emory.edu).