Vol. 8(27), pp. 1289-1295, 18 July, 2013
DOI 10.5897/SRE2013.5559
ISSN 1992-2248 © 2013 Academic Journals
http://www.academicjournals.org/SRE
Scientific Research and Essays
Full Length Research Paper
Customer churn prediction using a hybrid genetic
programming approach
Ruba Obiedat
1
, Mouhammd Alkasassbeh
2
, Hossam Faris
1
* and Osama Harfoushi
1
1
Department of Business Information Technology, The University of Jordan, P. O. Box 11942 Amman, Jordan.
2
Department of Information Technology, Mutah University, P. O. Box 61710, Karak, Jordan.
Accepted 3 July, 2013
A churn consumer can be defined as a customer who transfers from one service provider to another
service provider. Recently, business operators have investigated many techniques that identify the
customer churn since churn rates leads to serious business loss. In this paper, a hybrid technique has
been used which combines K-means clustering with Genetic Programming to predict churners in
telecommunication companies. First, K-means clustering is used to filter the training dataset from
outliers and non representative customer behaviors then Genetic Programming is applied in order to
build classification trees that are able to classify customers into churners and non churners. The
proposed approach is evaluated and compared with other common classification approaches.
Experimental results show that K-means clustering with Genetic Programming has promising
capabilities in predicting churners’ rates.
Key words: Churn consumer, churn customer, K-means clustering, Genetic Programming
INTRODUCTION
Recently, mobile telecommunications became the
superior communication medium and sharing data
between the callers all over the world. Sanou (2013), in
the International Telecommunication Union reveals that
there were around 6.8 billion mobile subscriptions, which
means 96% of the world population. The mobile
subscriptions here mean the SIM cards and most of the
mobile users have more than one SIM card. In many
countries, usually, there is more than one mobile provider
who gives different services to attract new customers and
keep the exciting ones; every now and then there are
latest new mobile phones offers and promotions to keep
the company alive and prosperous. At the same time,
public regulations and the standardization of mobile
communication allow customers to easily move from one
provider to another, which is called a churn consumer or
churn customer; as a result, churn prediction has raised a
crucial mobile Business Intelligence (BI) application that
aims at identifying the customer who is about to leave to
a competitor or stay with the same provider. This
information is very important for the managers to set-up
their plans for the future, technically or commercially. To
endure in the stimulating atmosphere of an international
market and be competitive, organizations essentially
identify and predict customer predilections and behaviors
to make the most of customer retention before their rivals
do so.
Customer churn management includes three steps:
determination and identification of churn customers,
investigating the reasons of churn and application of
certain policies; as well as taking measures to deteriorate
the rate of churn (Rodpysh, 2012). Some of the major
data tasks in data mining are prediction and
classification, which can be applied to extract knowledge
by using the data available regarding customers’
behaviors. Nowadays, this technique is used for
customers churn management and customers relation
management (Rodpysh, 2012). A study carried out by
*Corresponding author. E-mail: 7ossam@gmail.com.