Testing the Sustainability
of Current Accounts
for Major South Asian
Economies: A Panel
Data Approach
Shruti Shastri
1
A. K. Giri
2
Geetilaxmi Mohapatra
3
Abstract
The study assesses the sustainability of current accounts for the panel of five
major South Asian economies, namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and
Nepal for the period 1985–2016. Towards this end, the intertemporal solvency
model of Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Husted (1992) has been employed. The
panel co-integration test by Westerlund (2007) confirms the long-run relation-
ship between exports and imports but the estimates of the slope coefficient
based on GM-FMOLS, GM-DOLS and CCEMG turn out to be less than one
indicating the weak sustainability. The weak form of sustainability implies that
current account inflows are not equally matched by the outflows underscoring
the need for policy interventions. An analysis of the other fundamentals, how-
ever, reveals that the non-consumption-dominated import structure, increasing
export diversification and broadly declining external debt stocks are welcome
signs for the external sustainability of the region.
JEL: F30, F32
Keywords
Sustainability of current account deficits, South Asia, panel co-integration, group
mean FMOLS, group mean DOLS
Research Article
Corresponding author:
Shruti Shastri, Department of Economics, Banasthali Vidyapith, Rajasthan, India.
E-mail: shastrishruti5@gmail.com
1
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Banasthali Vidyapith, Rajasthan, India.
2
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Central University of Rajasthan, Rajasthan, India.
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Finance, Birla Institute of Technology and
Science (BITS), Rajasthan, India.
South Asia Economic Journal
19(1) 1–21
©
2018 Research and Information
System for Developing Countries &
Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka
SAGE Publications
sagepub.in/home.nav
DOI: 10.1177/1391561418761064
http://journals.sagepub.com/home/sae