I:NI:K\:r T ru I UKI: - rceporr OT the Energy Project at the Harvard Business School Edited by Robert Stobaugh and Daniel Yergin, with I. C. Bupp, Mel Horwitch, Sergio Koreisha, M. A. Maidique, and Frank Schuller. 353 pp. New York: Random House. $12.95. Reviewed by David Redfield, RCA Research Center, Princeton. Given the steady stream of analyses of the "energy crisis" and the debates that they regularly inspire, it is becoming as important to observe who is speaking as what is being said. The present bold volume merits wide atten- tion on both counts. Capping a six-year study of all major aspects of U.S. energy. policy, this report gives a com- prehensive diagnosis of our energy ills as well as a prescrip- tion for treating them over the next twenty years. The authors (a group of seven with varied backgrounds) have the qualifications necessary to tackle as they do the economic, technological, environmental, political, and social complexities which comprise essential threads of this endlessly complicated pattern. Nevertheless, this book is clearly written for laymen. Its style is simple-almost conversational-and the details of its various calculations and analyses are relegated to the 70 pages of references and notes at the end or to a provocative appendix. The diligent reader will find several valuable nuggets buried among the notes, but the flow of the text is quite direct and the occasionally startling conclusions are clearly stated. The message of this book can be rather readily sum- marized if one is content with a bare-bones sketch: Our in- creasing dependence on imported oil is intolerable for a number of reasons, only some of which are well known. Replacement of imported oil with our four domestic energy sources-oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear energy-cannot occur on the scale necessary to meet pro- jected growth in energy demand. The U.S. can, however, increase its efficiency in energy utilization by a very large amount without materially reducing its living standards. By thus reducing demand growth and by speeding the ap- plication of renewable energy sources (i.e., solar energy), we can develop a "balanced energy system" by the end of this century. Such a system will provide such large benefits to the economy that substantial federal subsidies are justified to induce the growth of this system. The strengths of this work, however, are in its infor- mative and lucid analyses which form the basis for those far-reaching conclusions. The evolution of each of our four domestic energy sources and the problems it currently faces are authoritatively summarized with occasionally novel perspectives. The chapter on oil, for example, makes a persuasive argument that the total effective cost for fur- ther imported oil is at least $35 a barrel "not counting some potentially quite serious social and political costs." 14 gas-treated in the next chapter-lead to considerations of Mexican gas (too limited), liquified natural gas (also im- ported), synthetic natural gas ("a long-range possibility at best"), and so on. Coal is viewed with considerable ambivalence, its abun- dance seemingly offset by serious "systematic, en- vironmental, and sociological problems" that limit the short-term prospects for major increases in its uses. But " ... the need for a synthetic fuels capability is more a mat- ter of national security than of comparative fuel economics ... " even though the "rush toward synthetic fuels may have been misdirected ... " That is, synfuels are still in the research and development stage. Thus "despite its ... abundance, coal will not become our major near- term solution to the energy problem." The title, "Nuclear Stalemate," of Chapter 5 sum- marizes its theme: Concerns over safety of nuclear power and radioactive waste disposal are leading to delays and changes in new power plants that increase their costs and worsen their economic competitiveness. The cumulative ef- fect of these factors-aggravated recently by the accident at Three Mile Island-have so limited its growth that nuclear power offers no solution to the problem of America's growing dependence on imported oil for the rest of this century. (italics in original text) Specific recommendations are given to increase our four conventional energy sources, but the prescription for treating these problems centers on "Conservation: The Key Energy Source." Although it is the longest chapter in the book and most of its material is not really new, it should be mandatory reading for every concerned in- dividual. What are the realistic prospects for substantial energy savings? Why haven't we practiced conservation more vigorously? What barriers are there to widespread conservation practices? Will the nation's economic health suffer if energy demand is reduced by conservation? What should the federal government do to promote increased ef- ficiency in energy use? All these issues and more are dealt with clearly and convincingly, culminating in two central conclusions: "The United States can use 30 or 40 percent less energy than it does, with virtually no penalty for the way Americans live ... " And the prospective benefits justify programs of fiscal incentives up to 40070 of capital costs to industry and up to 50% in the residential- commercial sector. Beyond conservation, new supplies of energy will be needed; the best prospects are renewable energy sources. It is important to recognize that active and passive solar heating is a here-and-now alternative... (italics in original) and that "The potential for solar heating is vast. .. " As for other solar technologies, biomass, small hydroelectric plants, and small wind turbines offer signifi- cant near-term benefits; "the logic of photovoltaic conver- sion is very persuasive;" but "Big Solar" (power tower, solar power satellite, ocean thermal conversion, and large wind machines) is farther away. Even with these reserva- tions, however, "solar could provide between a fifth anda quarter of the nation's energy requirements by the turn of TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY, September 1975