Stretch Goals and Backcasting: Approaches for Overcoming Barriers to Large-Scale Ecological Restoration Adrian D. Manning, 1,2 David B. Lindenmayer, 1 and Joern Fischer 1 Abstract The destruction and transformation of ecosystems by hu- mans threatens biodiversity, ecosystem function, and vital ecosystem services. Ecological repair of ecosystems will be a major challenge over the next century and beyond. Restoration efforts to date have frequently been ad hoc, and site or situation specific. Although such small-scale efforts are vitally important, without large-scale visions and coordination, it is unlikely that large functioning eco- systems will ever be constructed by chance through the cumulative effects of small-scale projects. Although the problems of human-induced environmental degradation and the need for a solution are widely recognized, these issues have rarely been addressed on a sufficiently large- scale basis. There are numerous barriers that prevent large- scale ecological restoration projects from being proposed, initiated, or carried through. Common barriers include the ‘‘shifting baseline syndrome,’’ the scale and complexity of restoration, the long-term and open-ended nature of res- toration, funding challenges, and preemptive constraint of vision. Two potentially useful approaches that could help overcome these barriers are stretch goals and backcasting. Stretch goals are ambitious long-term goals used to inspire creativity and innovation to achieve outcomes that cur- rently seem impossible. Backcasting is a technique where a desired end point is visualized, and then a pathway to that end point is worked out retrospectively. A case study from the Scottish Highlands is used to illustrate how stretch goals and backcasting could facilitate large-scale restoration. The combination of these approaches offers ways to evaluate and shape options for the future of eco- systems, rather than accepting that future ecosystems are victims of past and present political realities. Key words: adaptive management, backcasting, ecological restoration, guiding image, large-scale, milestones, resto- ration ecology, scenario planning, shifting baselines, stretch goals. Introduction At first people refuse to believe that a strange new thing can be done. Then they begin to hope it can be done. They see it can be done. Then it is done and all the world wonders why it was not done centuries ago (Hodgson Burnett 1911, p. 288). In the face of unprecedented human-induced destruction and transformation of ecosystems (Chapin et al. 1997; Vitousek et al. 1997), ecosystem restoration will be vital to avoid the ecological collapse of the Earth’s biosphere (Dobson et al. 1997; Hobbs & Harris 2001; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Large-scale ecosystem res- toration is needed to arrest and reverse the degradation of landscapes around the world. However, restoration efforts to date have been criticized for being ad hoc, site and situ- ation specific (Hobbs & Norton 1996), or focusing on small, protected nature reserves (Naveh 1994; Soule ´& Terborgh 1999). Although small-scale restoration projects can be valuable, there is an urgent need to greatly expand the scale of ecosystem restoration for both conservation and production (Naveh 1994; Hobbs & Norton 1996). Some inspiring examples of large restoration projects are under way, such as the continent-wide Wildlands Project in the United States (Noss 2003) and the ‘‘WildCountry’’ project in Australia (Soule ´ et al. 2004). Yet, more such projects are urgently required. Globally, there is still a gap between the scale and magnitude of what needs to be done to sustain, enhance, and restore ecosystem functions and services and what is actually being done on the ground. A quick scan of the literature reveals that very few people write about the failure of large-scale restora- tion projects to get started. For example, which conserva- tion manager would write about the time when they held back from suggesting a restoration project to their supe- rior because he or she might think it ‘‘unrealistic’’? Despite some laudable exceptions, there is little doubt that large-scale restoration projects are still uncommon. In this paper, some barriers are identified that may pre- vent large-scale restoration projects from getting started, although our list is far from exhaustive. More importantly, we outline two approaches—stretch goals and backcasting— that could help overcome barriers to large-scale restora- tion. Both approaches encourage imagination and creativ- ity to achieve seemingly unattainable goals. These are by 1 Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia 2 Address correspondence to A. D. Manning, email adrianm@cres.anu.edu.au Ó 2006 Society for Ecological Restoration International DECEMBER 2006 Restoration Ecology Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 487–492 487