Journal of Tuberculosis Research, 2018, 6, 302-319
http://www.scirp.org/journal/jtr
ISSN Online: 2329-8448
ISSN Print: 2329-843X
DOI: 10.4236/jtr.2018.64027 Dec. 28, 2018 302 Journal of Tuberculosis Research
Space-Time Cluster Analysis of Tuberculosis
Incidence in Beijing, China
Gehendra Mahara
1,2,3
, Mina Karki
4
, Kun Yang
1,3,5
, Sipeng Chen
1,3,6
, Wei Wang
1,7*
, Xiuhua Guo
1,3*
1
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
2
Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
3
Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, China
4
Mental Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal
5
Department of Evidence-Based Medicine, Xuanwu Hospital, Beijing, China
6
Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Science, Beijing, China
7
School of Medical Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia
Abstract
Tuberculosis is one of the top killer diseases in the globe. The aim of this
study was to explore the geographic distribution patterns and clustering cha-
racteristics of the disease incidence in terms of both space and time with high
relative risk locations for tuberculosis incidence in Beijing area. A retrospec-
tive space-time clustering analysis was conducted at the districts level in Bei-
jing area based on reported cases of sputum smear-positive pulmonary tu-
berculosis (TB) from 2005 to 2014. Global and local Moran’s I, autocorrela-
tion analysis along with Ord (Gi*) statistics was applied to detect spatial pat-
terns and the hotspot of TB incidence. Furthermore, the Kuldorff’s scan sta-
tistics were used to analyze space-time clusters. A total of 40,878 TB cases
were reported in Beijing from 2005 to 2014. The annual average incidence
rate was 22.11 per 100,000 populations (ranged from 16.55 to 25.71). The
seasonal incidence occurred from March to July until late autumn. A higher
relative risk area for TB incidence was mainly detected in urban and some
rural districts of Beijing. The significant most likely space-time clusters and
secondary clusters of TB incidence were scattered diversely in Beijing districts
in each study year. The risk population was mainly scattered in urban and
dense populated districts, including in few rural districts.
Keywords
Tuberculosis, Spatial Statistics, Space-Time Analysis, Beijing, China
How to cite this paper: Mahara, G., Karki,
M., Yang, K., Chen, S.P., Wang, W. and
Guo, X.H. (2018) Space-Time Cluster
Analysis of Tuberculosis Incidence in Bei-
jing, China. Journal of Tuberculosis Re-
search, 6, 302-319.
https://doi.org/10.4236/jtr.2018.64027
Received: December 6, 2018
Accepted: December 25, 2018
Published: December 28, 2018
Copyright © 2018 by authors and
Scientific Research Publishing Inc.
This work is licensed under the Creative
Commons Attribution International
License (CC BY 4.0).
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Open Access