Anugerah Widiyanto Seizo Kato Naoki Maruyama Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Mie University 1515 Kamihama-cho, Tsu, Mie 514-8507, Japan E-mail: anugerah@es.mach.mie-u.ac.jp Optimizing Selection of Appropriate Power Generation Systems in Indonesia By Using Distance Based Approach Method A deterministic quantitative model has been developed to compare the technical, economi- cal and environmental feature of various electric power generating plants. The model, which is based on matrix operations, is used in evaluating the various aspects of energy sources available for electricity generation systems in a developing country. Several en- ergy sources which could be considered for production of electricity to meet current and future electricity demands have been chosen. These will include fossil fuel fired, nuclear, and natural-renewable energy power plants. And, a set of criteria for optimized selection includes five area of concerns: energy economy, energy security, environmental protec- tion, socio-economic development and technological aspects for the electric power gen- erations. The model developed in this study is applied to the Indonesian’s electric power sector development. Most of the data required are obtained from various sources related to power industry in Indonesia, such as the electricity generating authority of Indonesia (Perusahaan Listrik Negara, PLN), Government of Indonesia, World Bank, Asian Devel- opment Bank, United Nations, and other sources, both in published and public domains. The result of this study will be a ranking of energy sources for Indonesia power genera- tion systems based on the Euclidean composite distance of each alternative to the desig- nated optimal source of energy. @DOI: 10.1115/1.1649740# Introduction The selection of energy sources to generate electricity can be considered as one of the most important aspects in the decision process for the national power system expansion @1,2#. The deci- sion in this stage critically considers the future performance of the power plant. It often involves the consideration of numerous fac- tors that encompass many different aspects of economic, social, political, technology development and environment, some of which cannot be easily quantified in terms of monetary value. The depletion of fossil energy sources, public awareness of safety and environmental problems, for example, have introduced several po- litical and social issues which require careful assessment through- out the decision making and planning process for electric power expansion. In addition to that, the issues of moral responsibility that this generation owes to next generation have brought about need to expand the planning horizon including far longer periods of time. A developing country like Indonesia can use the needed power expansion program not just as means to meet the energy related goals, but also more importantly to promote development in the broad area of modern technology and industry. The selection of advanced coal technology or nuclear power program, for example, will serve not only as a means for energy diversification, energy economy and energy security, but also as a promoting agent for development in broad area of science, technology and modern industry. These potential benefits, however, will only be realized if the developing country has the capacity to select the most appro- priate power technology, that fits both with the current and long- term future of social, economical and technological conditions of the country. Otherwise, the power expansion program will only serve the short-term energy economy goals. These aspects have brought problem setting different to those commonly practiced in industrialized countries. This study intends to identify the important energy issues ex- isting in Indonesia, and to model the relationship of these issues for solving the decision problem of the selection of energy sources for the electric power expansion program. Background on Indonesia Indonesia is an archipelago consisting of no less than 13,700 islands. The sea area is four times larger than its land area which is about 1.9 million square kilometers. The sea area is about 7.9 million kilometers. The land area is mainly covered with thick tropical rain forest and predominantly mountainous. The popula- tion has reached 220 million in 2001, which is the third largest group in Asia after People’s Republic of China and India. Most of the population can be found on four main islands, Java-Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. Java-Bali is the most popu- lated of these islands, with about 50% of the total population. This geography has shaped the structure of the Indonesian power sector. In 1998, Java and Bali account about 82.6% of total electricity generation ( PLN , 2001!@3#. Due to the dispersion of population requiring electricity services and unequal distribution of domestic energy resources, Indonesia has the highly decentral- ized power sector. To this date, only Java, Bali and Madura is- lands, have been linked by an interconnected grid system. Figure 1 shows primary energy supply, final energy consump- tion ~energy consumed by end-users!, electricity consumption and GDP @4#. Electricity consumption sector, in 1980–1989 and 1990–1997 grew at an average of 15.6% and 11.8% respectively; GDP grew far more slowly, averaging 5.5% annually. Due to rapid growth in electricity demand, continual capital shortages, disper- sion of the population requiring electricity services, PLN , the sole utility company, has satisfied only portion of the nation’s electric- ity needs. Many industries have come to rely on their own private generation to meet their demand for electricity. Contributed by the Advanced Energy Systems Division and presented at the In- ternational Joint Power Generation Conference of THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS, Phoenix, Arizona, June 24 –26, 2002. Manuscript re- ceived at the AES Division, Dec. 2002; revised manuscript received Oct. 2003. Associate Editor S. M. Aceves. Copyright © 2004 by ASME Journal of Energy Resources Technology MARCH 2004, Vol. 126 Õ 63